Blazers starting their late-season surge earlier this year
By Nate Mann
In January, the Portland Trail Blazers dug its offense out of the trenches and posted an 11-5 record.
The Blazers had an abysmal December, winning just five of 13 games. They finished 2017 with an 18-17 record, barely in the Western Conference playoff picture.
Damian Lillard returned from injury and the team quickly regained its early season form. Portland won four of the first five matchups of 2018, but then lost three straight against tough Western Conference opponents.
Fans briefly went into a frenzy when Lillard reportedly met in private with Blazers owner Paul Allen to discuss the team’s direction. But with Dame’s unquestionable loyalty, even Stephen A. Smith couldn’t raise ideas of the star’s departure.
In a complete reversal of that three-game skid, Portland has won seven of its last eight matchups.
Sure, some of the teams in that win streak aren’t top tier. Tonight, however, the Blazers can validate the winning streak against the Toronto Raptors.
Let’s take a look at what made January such a great month for the Trail Blazers.
Offense
Early in the season, Portland ranked bottom ten in offensive rating. They tallied a league-worst 18 assists per night and were shooting far worse than in season’s past.
Once a team known for stellar offense and trying to outgun opponents, the Blazers now relied on its defense to win games.
Since the start of January, though, Portland’s offense has mightily improved.
In the last 15 games (January), the Blazers ranked 4th in offensive rating. The top three teams were the Golden State Warriors (of course), Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder, respectively.
In that span, Portland averaged 22 assists per game and shot 48% from the field. These numbers, along with other offensive stats, were significantly better than their season totals.
To close out an offensively fantastic month, CJ McCollum decided to drop 50 points in 29 minutes against the Chicago Bulls.
Defense
The Blazers can either excel at offense or defense, but never both simultaneously.
In January, Portland finally combined successful formulas on both ends of the ball.
Since the three-game losing streak in mid-January, the Blazers have recorded the 12th best defensive rating in the league. On the season, they are 8th in terms of defense with a defensive rating of 104.2.
In perspective, Portland’s defensive rating in 2016-2017 was 107.8, 21st in the NBA.
Quiet components of the tight defense is the Ed Davis–Zach Collins combination. With the two on the court, the Blazers defensive rating is over three points better.
Late Season Surge
Normally, the Portland Trail Blazers wait until March to start their annual late-season surge. They’ll be outside the playoff picture, string together a couple winning streaks, and sneak into the postseason as a bottom seed.
This season, Portland already has a better record approaching All-Star Weekend than year’s past. Once a possible hinderance of Damian Lillard reaching the All-Star game, the team was in the playoffs at voting time this season.
New year, new Blazers though. With an improved defense and recovered offensive identity, Portland is streaking two months earlier than usual.
Next: Fan responses to a hypothetical Damian Lillard trade
If the recent play that’s won them seven of the last eight is sustainable, the Blazers could nab a top-five playoff position. With the first and second seeds (Houston and Golden State) being very tough opponents, avoiding them in the first round is crucial.
Because the Trail Blazers aren’t waiting until March to play with a sense of urgency, achieving this is certainly plausible.
Hopefully the current win streak isn’t due to easier opponents – Portland has the 3rd toughest remaining schedule according to Basketball Reference.