The Portland Trail Blazers finished the 2024-25 season tied with the Phoenix Suns for the ninth-worst record in the league at 36-46. After recently losing the coin flip tiebreaker, Portland will have just a 3.7 percent shot at the No. 1 overall pick and a 16.9 percent chance of landing inside the top four in the 2025 NBA Draft.
They will need some luck on their side when the lottery is held on May 12. Unfortunately, the Blazers haven't had much of that in past years, moving up just three times in franchise history.
That dream became a reality, at least in Sam Vecenie's recent mock draft for The Athletic. After simulating the lottery, Vecenie had the Blazers landing the No. 3 overall pick, which had just a 4.4 percent chance of happening.
Cooper Flagg has cemented his status as the top prospect in this draft class and is on track to be the No. 1 overall pick. The No. 2 spot is more uncertain, but the current consensus is that Dylan Harper has emerged as the second-best prospect.
With Flagg and Harper off the board, you'd think the Blazers would pick between Harper's Rutgers teammate, Ace Bailey, or Baylor two-way guard V.J. Edgecombe.
You could make a strong case for either to be the pick. Bailey has an upside that few in the class can match with his 6-foot-10 frame and elite shot-making ability. It would also be hard to argue with Edgecombe being the selection, as he is arguably the best athlete in the class and a complete player who impacts winning in multiple aspects, more so than Bailey.
Blazers reach for Tre Johnson at No. 3 in The Athletic mock draft
If Portland were in this situation, we'd lean toward Bailey because his path to becoming a true superstar seems more attainable. But Vecenie surprisingly doesn't have the Blazers take either prospect. Instead, they elect to go with Texas guard Tre Johnson.
Vecenie notes Portland's fit as a significant factor behind the selection, writing, "The Blazers, in my opinion, have a tremendous frontcourt of the future with Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan. However, there are questions in the backcourt surrounding young players Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson, and they could use another real floor-spacer to knock down shots and threaten defenders."
Everything Vecenie wrote is true. The Blazers do desperately need to add more shooting this offseason. Henderson and Sharpe are also bigger question marks, as they are younger, less developed players than their frontcourt.
Portland may have sacrificed a future star by prioritizing fit over upside
But there's a larger issue surrounding Portland's roster -- they need a superstar to contend in the West.
It's one thing to make a pick that is an ideal fit at No. 10, but if the Blazers luck into the top four, that will be their best chance at finding that franchise-altering talent. It could also be their only opportunity, depending on how their first-round picks and swaps from Milwaukee play out.
They can't worry about how the pick fits into their young core; they need to do the opposite and build the core around that prospect's strengths and weaknesses.
Not to mention, Camara and Avdija's versatility allows them to play multiple positions, meaning Edgecombe, Bailey, or Johnson could all fit into the starting lineup without having to shake things up. If Sharpe didn't pan out as expected, Camara could seamlessly slide down to the shooting guard spot to address any backcourt weaknesses.
Johnson is a special talent and could be a worthwhile selection in the top five. But he's not the best available prospect when the Blazers are on the clock here. That's why they blow the pick.