Last year, a 21-win Portland Trail Blazers team fell back to pick No. 7 in the 2024 NBA Draft, partly because they lost a tiebreaker coin flip to the Charlotte Hornets. In retrospect, it all worked out for Portland. They got the guy they wanted all along in Donovan Clingan, thanks to Charlotte rolling the dice on Tidjane Salaun, a gamble that has backfired so far.
After winning their final game of the 2024-25 regular season over the Los Angeles Lakers, the Blazers have put themselves in another coin-flip scenario to determine the lottery positioning for the 2025 NBA Draft -- this time with the Phoenix Suns (who owe their pick to the Houston Rockets).
Both Portland and Phoenix finished the season tied with a 36-46 record, a polarizing outcome depending on what expectations were entering the season.
For the Blazers, it resulted in the extensions of general manager Joe Cronin and head coach Chauncey Billups. Meanwhile, the Suns have fired Mike Budenholzer and could look to make a significant roster overhaul this summer, potentially even moving superstar Kevin Durant.
Blazers fall to tenth in lottery positioning after coin flip loss to Suns
On April 21, the Blazers and Suns held a coin flip (using ping pong balls) to determine who would have the No. 9 and No. 10 overall positioning in the draft lottery. Unfortunately, the basketball gods were not on Portland's side this time around.
Typically, if teams didn't finish the season tied, the ninth spot would have a 4.5 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 20.3 percent chance of landing in the top four. The tenth spot would be at just three percent for No. 1 and 13.9 percent for the top four.
However, because Phoenix and Portland tied, the lottery odds will now be split somewhat evenly. The ninth spot will have a 3.8 percent chance at No. 1 and a 17.3 percent chance at jumping inside the top four, while the tenth sits at 3.7 percent for No. 1 and 16.9 percent for the top four.
More likely than not, the coin flip will determine which team picks ahead at No. 9 and No. 10. That in itself is significant, especially in this stacked draft class that could have a few highly talented prospects still on the board around that range -- Kon Knueppel and Kasparas Jakucionis are two players Portland should hope falls to them.
But there's also a possibility that the Blazers cost themselves a top-four pick by losing this coin flip. They desperately need another high-upside piece to add to their young core, and losing that pick to the Rockets, who are on a similar timeline as the Blazers in the Western Conference, would only make it sting that much more.
The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery will be held on May 12. That's when we'll know how significant of a loss this coin flip truly was.