The NBA has officially announced the groups for the Emirates NBA Cup 2025. The Portland Trail Blazers landed in West Group C and have by far the toughest draw out of any team in the league.
The teams joining Portland in that group include the Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, and San Antonio Spurs. In other words, they have to go through Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, and Victor Wembanyama. Not to mention, Houston and Denver had arguably the two best free agent additions in the entire league.
This is highly unfavorable for the Blazers, but, more concerningly, it also brings up an ugly truth: they aren't ready to compete in the loaded Western Conference.
Portland's front office thinks they're playoff-ready in a loaded West
Somehow, the West only continues to strengthen. You can make a strong case that Portland will also be better next season due to internal improvements and the upgrade from Anfernee Simons to Jrue Holiday. But unfortunately, the Blazers aren't gaining enough ground to be serious playoff contenders.
Just looking at DraftKings' projected win totals for the 2025-26 season makes that abundantly clear. Portland has the fourth-lowest total in the West at 33.5 wins, which is ahead of only the tanking Utah Jazz (18.5) and two teams with dysfunctional front offices in the Phoenix Suns (31.5) and New Orleans Pelicans (32.5).
There's a massive disconnect between how good the Blazers' front office thinks their team is and the reality of it all. Their projected win total and the win-now trade for a declining Jrue Holiday, who is 35 years old and on a three-year, $104 million contract, proves that point.
Meanwhile, general manager Joe Cronin has called making the playoffs a "reasonable expectation" for next season. While we would love for that to be the case, we also wonder if the strong finish to last season was misleading to an extent. The harsh reality is that Portland's roster isn't talented enough to the point where adding Holiday will put them above the top.
It's great that the Blazers didn't continue making aggresive moves this offseason to match Holiday's timeline. But it also begs the question, what was even the point of trading for him?
It would be one thing if Portland were in the Eastern Conference, which is wide open for the taking. But they are in a star-studded West. The NBA Cup group reveal was just the latest reality check about how far Portland is from achieving what they think they can. And that delusion is hindering their rebuild with myopic moves.