The Portland Trail Blazers have yet to make a splash in free agency, making the win-now trade for Jrue Holiday even more confusing. Now that the free agency dust has settled, it's evident that the Blazers want to keep their books clean. But why take on Holiday's $104.4 salary over three years then?
After making back-to-back surprising moves with the trade for Holiday and selection of Yang Hansen, the Blazers began the offseason on a highly unpredictable note. Whether the unconventional Hansen pick winds up being pure genius or foolish remains to be seen, but regardless, we give general manager Joe Cronin credit for taking a gamble as Portland's roster desperately needs more upside.
However, their first-round pick and the trade for Holiday contradict each other in terms of the Blazers' timeline.
Portland needs to stop straddling two timelines
Cronin previously referred to the Blazers making the playoffs next season as a "reasonable expectation," and the aggresive trade for a 35-year-old Holiday on one of the worst contracts in the league made that intention clear.
Chauncey Billups has also expressed confidence in Hansen's ability to contribute immediately, saying, "We'd feel comfortable putting him in a game right now. He's that good. I don't see this as a 'project' type of situation. But it's a crowded room."
Although we like the home run swing for Hansen, we're also more skeptical of his ability to make an immediate impact. There's a reason he was widely projected to be a second-round pick, and those concerns don't just suddenly disappear now that the Blazers thought otherwise.
Going from the CBA to the physicality and competition of the NBA certainly has to be a learning curve. But Portland can afford to be patient, bringing him along with a young core that isn't quite ready to contend. At least, that should be their mindset; the Holiday trade says otherwise.
Trading for Holiday with no follow-up move risks purgatory
The Blazers are taking a big gamble on Yang being NBA-ready, given Donovan Clingan's conditioning and Robert Williams III's injury history. Buying out Deandre Ayton shed $10 million off his salary and allowed Portland access to the full MLE without dipping into the luxury tax. Only... they haven't even used it.
The Blazers are watching the Western Conference get even stronger with teams like the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets making multiple key additions. Why waive Ayton, who was on an expiring deal, if the goal is to make the playoffs?
Going from Ayton to Hansen is a significant downgrade in the short term, which is fine. But that keeps leading us back to the same question: Why trade for Holiday then? Portland already had a valuable mentor for Scoot Henderson in Billups. They didn't need to bail Boston out by making this trade.
The Holiday move suggested that Portland would continue to be aggresive this offseason in their pursuit of the postseason. Not fully committing to a rebuild or a playoff push is exactly how teams wind up in purgatory. And for Portland, the trade for an expensive and declining Holiday with no subsequent moves to match his timeline risks just that.