As with any 20-year-old in the NBA, Scoot Henderson's games are going to fluctuate more than the average player, which makes him a challenging player to predict and bet on. He'll have the occasional game to remind you why he was a former No. 3 overall pick, but the frequency of those is diminishing along with his role and minutes.
Given Henderson's lack of three-point shooting, his scoring isn't multi-faceted enough to be reliable at this stage of his career. But his assist numbers should benefit from the Portland Trail Blazers' plethora of other scorers and how well they have been playing as of late, winning three games in a row against playoff-hopeful teams.
Overview of Scoot Henderson's last 10 games
Henderson has taken a discouraging step back compared to his strong start to the 2024-25 season. Here's how his past ten games have unfolded:
Date | Opponent | Result | Points | Assists | Rebounds | Steals | Turnovers | Field goals | Three pointers | Free throws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov. 17 | Hawks | W | 6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
Nov. 13 | Timberwolves | W | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
Nov. 12 | Timberwolves | W | 14 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
Nov. 10 | Grizzlies | L | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Nov. 8 | @ Timberwolves | L | 16 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6-14 | 0-1 | 4-4 |
Nov. 7 | @ Spurs | L | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5-12 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Nov. 4 | @ Pelicans | W | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
Nov. 2 | @ Suns | L | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Nov. 1 | Thunder | L | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
Oct. 30 | @ Clippers | W | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
Key trends from the last 10 games
During this ten-game stretch, Henderson is averaging 9.7 points per game. That's a significant scoring dip compared to the very beginning of the season, where he averaged 15.6 points per game in the month of October. From the five games in October to the nine in November, Scoot's per-game averages have taken a hit in minutes (27.8 to 24.8), field goal attempts (11.8 to 9.8), and efficiency (44.1 field goal percent to 38.6), all of which has contributed to his declining role and overall scoring.
Henderson has scored at least ten points in five of his last ten games. Consistency was a significant problem throughout his up-and-down rookie season. October was promising in terms of Scoot putting together multiple solid games, which gave Blazers fans a sense of hope that those struggles were behind him, but they seemed to have returned.
His high-ceiling games don't appear to be there as frequently, either. Henderson scored at least 14 points in four of his first five games to start 2024-25 but now has only reached that mark in three of his last ten.
Future predictions
The main factor to consider is what Henderson's role within the Blazers' offense will look like with everyone coming back healthy soon. Anfernee Simons' status for Wednesday's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder is still up in the air and is certainly something to monitor. The Thunder also have the best defensive rating in the league, which could especially be troublesome for the turnover-prone Henderson.
Many were anticipating Henderson to take a significant leap in his second season with Malcolm Brogdon out of the equation and his strong finish to his rookie year. But he still has plenty of backcourt competition between Simons' eventual return, Shaedon Sharpe looking like the best version of himself with back-to-back games of at least 30 points, and Dalano Banton picking up from where he left off last season.
It's unlikely Henderson will have a role as a go-to player until he can prove to be more reliable on a nightly basis; this should prevent his scoring from going down, as evidenced by the past ten games he's played in. But look for Henderson to find ways to contribute and expend his energy elsewhere. He's making more of an impact on the defensive end, recording at least one steal in each of the past seven games.
Additionally, with his decreased role as a scorer, Scoot's playmaking and assists totals have picked up, which should continue to be the case. However, Henderson and the Blazers' offense as a whole could regress in the short term as their next four games versus the Thunder, Rockets (twice), and Grizzlies are all on the road and against teams ranked in the top five in terms of defensive rating.