Scoot Henderson drawing troubling comparisons to former lottery bust

In his second season, Portland Trail Blazers point guard and former No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson is averaging 10.9 points, 5.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.1 steals on 40/30/77 shooting splits. Those uninspiring numbers led to The Ringer's Michael Pena recently naming Henderson on his list of the least-improved players of 2024-25.

In his piece, Pena compared Henderson to ex-Blazer Dennis Smith Jr., a top-ten pick by the Dallas Mavericks. "He's still young, and there's still quite a bit of time before Portland has to make a real financial decision about Henderson's future. But the Dennis Smith Jr. vibes are starting to swell," wrote Pena. 

Scoot Henderson is giving off 'Dennis Smith Jr. vibes'

Smith had a promising start to his NBA career, finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2017-18 when he averaged 15.2 points, 5.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.0 steals on 40/31/69 shooting splits. But he never panned out as expected and is currently out of the league at just 27 years old.

Henderson still has a long way to go until reaching that territory. Admittedly, there are some concerning parallels between the two in terms of statistics and style of play, as Henderson is an uber-athletic guard who is overly reliant on getting to the rim to be impactful on offense. Although it may never become a strength of his, Scoot needs to improve his shooting to the point where he's not a liability.

Pena emphasizes the need for Henderson to develop in that area as well: "And if he can't space the floor or be trusted with the ball in his hands, it will be hard for Chauncey Billups to play him with other members of Portland's core, knowing their development will be affected by the strain Henderson's flaws put them through."

Blazers must prioritize Henderson's growth over surrounding concerns

However, Scoot has shown signs of progress as a distributor, decreasing his turnovers from 3.4 per game as a rookie to 2.7 this year. He still has moments where his decision-making is questionable (as is the case with any 20-year-old in the league), but for the most part, it's improving overall. Not to mention, the last time he was fully trusted with the ball in his hands was under Nate Bjorkgren, and he delivered a game-winning shot over Utah.

The notion that Henderson's flaws will negatively impact Portland's players seems a backward approach. The Blazers recently invested a No. 3 overall pick in Scoot and should be doing everything they can to help ensure he doesn't turn into another Smith. That means surrounding him with players who complement his game, not the other way around.

There's always the possibility that Henderson never reaches his high ceiling and continues to show "Dennis Smith Jr. vibes" throughout his career. However, the Blazers need to figure that out by increasing Henderson's role and putting him in a more optimal position to succeed.

In a worst-case scenario, they find out they still need to address the point guard position. And if Henderson struggles in a heightened role, that will likely mean Portland receives a valuable draft pick in a 2025 draft class that has several promising guard prospects.

In the best case, Henderson turns into the player they thought he was on draft day.