Scoot Henderson entered the NBA with sky-high expectations as the Trail Blazers' No. 3 overall pick in 2023. Portland's decision to use their No. 3 pick to jumpstart their rebuild instead of trading it away to get Damian Lillard more immediate help was likely the right call.
But was drafting Henderson? There are a few players that Portland should've selected instead of Henderson, most notably Houston's Amen Thompson. However, that doesn't mean we can definitively say that Henderson is a bust yet.
Things have not gone to plan, but he is just 20 years old and still figuring out how to play the most difficult position to learn in the league. Scoot's stats don't jump off the page as someone who is steadily improving. In his rookie season, he averaged 14.0 points, 5.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 0.8 steals on 39/33/82 shooting splits.
Almost halfway through his second year, those numbers look very similar, besides his scoring, which has taken a dip. Scoot is averaging 10.9 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.1 steals on 40/30/77 shooting splits.
Scoot Henderson is showing subtle signs of progress
Still, overall, this has been a better season for Henderson than his rookie year. Henderson is gradually learning how to implement playing with a change of pace into his game, which is required to succeed as a floor general. His decision-making has noticeably improved, decreasing his turnovers from 3.4 to 2.7 a game. The eye test suggests that his shot selection has gotten better as well, as Scoot doesn't seem to be forcing up reckless shots quite as often.
Although Henderson's scoring is down this season, that is more of a Portland problem than a Scoot problem, as his role and opportunities have decreased since last season. As a rookie, Henderson had a 26.0 percent usage rate while averaging 28.5 minutes. His usage rate has dropped to 21.3 percent this season, with his playing time decreasing to 25.7 minutes per game.
His ability to get downhill and attack the paint has been advertised since coming into the league. Scoot's 12.7 drives are just 0.2 behind Anthony Edwards and ahead of a few superstars, most notably Giannis Antetokounmpo and Devin Booker. Scoot is shooting 46.2 percent from the field on those drives, ahead of players like Edwards, Tyrese Maxey, and Stephen Curry. These are cherry-picked names, but the point is that Henderson's lack of finishing is blown out of proportion.
Areas Henderson must improve to avoid bust status
Areas Henderson does need to significantly improve, however, in order to avoid bust status, are his shooting and defense. It's extremely difficult to be an impactful guard in the modern NBA if you can't shoot or play defense. For context, the league average three-point percentage for point guards is 35.0 percent, so Scoot still has a ways to go in that department.
His defense also remains a major liability, as Henderson ranks towards the bottom of the league in several key player defensive stats. Henderson is getting better at using his athleticism to play the passing lanes. He is still figuring out how to effectively guard in pick-and-roll situations, which is concerning, given how PnR-heavy the league has become.
Henderson has shown subtle signs of progress this season, though it hasn't been linear or as significant as some had hoped. The jury is still out on the Blazers' 20-year-old guard.