Scoot Henderson has had an up-and-down start to his NBA career. Against the Brooklyn Nets, Henderson had a career game, recording 39 points, six assists, four rebounds, and two steals on 13-of-18 shooting from the field and 8-of-10 shooting from three. He followed that up with a game that brought him back down to earth, with 16 points, six assists, and two rebounds on 6-of-14 from the field and 2-of-7 from three.
Henderson still has plenty of time to figure things out in the league at just 20 years old. But so far, his career has been off to more of a rocky start than the Blazers were hoping for their No. 3 overall pick. This year, Scoot is averaging 11.8 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.8 turnovers on 42/34/76 shooting splits.
If his three-point shot is falling, as was the case against Brooklyn, then he's going to turn out just fine in the league. However, the issue is that Henderson's shot has been inconsistent through his first one-and-a-half seasons, and as a result, his play has also been volatile and unreliable.
Going into the 2023 NBA Draft, we knew that Henderson's shot remained a work in progress. He was a 66.7 percent free throw shooter in his 2022-23 with G League Ingite. The attribute that largely made Henderson such a coveted draft prospect was his athleticism. But now, going up against NBA competition, his athleticism was blown a bit out of proportion.
Scoot Henderson's athleticism 'was overblown' entering the 2023 NBA Draft
Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo Sports had a mailbag on the Kevin O'Connor Show, one of which pertained to Henderson. The question was, "How was everyone so wrong about the evaluation of Scoot Henderson? Was it simply the cool name?"
KOC responded: "People were wrong because his athleticism was overblown. I don't believe I ever said at the time that he was a Derrick Rose-type athlete or a Ja Mortant-type athlete, but that is the way he was perceived by certain people... He is not that, as Blazers fans have found out. "
He then went on to highlight the conundrum surrounding whether the Blazers should rebuild around Henderson.
"He's only 20 years old, you're not going to give up on him entirely. I just don't see a lot of indicators that he's someone the Blazers should be fully invested in. That's where I'm scared for them because if you miss out on a No. 3 pick, the guy you picked to hopefully take over for Damian Lillard someday, that could set your franchise back for many, many years," said O'Connor.
On the one hand, Portland isn't far removed from investing a top-three pick into someone who was supposed to be a foundational rebuilding piece in their post-Lillard era. Henderson has shown some flashes, such as his career game against the Nets and the two games under Nate Bjorkgren, to name a few. But those flashes have been few and far between.
Adding another layer of complexity to the situation is that the Blazers don't have to, but should, make a decision on whether they want to keep Anfernee Simons as a long-term piece soon. Simons' contract is set to expire after next season, and in a perfect world, they would trade him for future assets to build around Henderson. But they can't yet confidently say that Henderson is their long-term starting point guard going forward until he puts together more consistent stretches.
Henderson must elevate his shooting and playmaking to compensate
Now that Henderson's athleticism isn't quite what we expected, how he fares in the NBA is going to be much more heavily dependent on his ability to shoot the ball. Scoot is now shooting 34.2 percent from beyond the arc this season, an improvement from his rookie season (32.5 percent). It's also not far off the league average for a point guard, which is 35.1 percent.
Henderson has received a lot of criticism because he's not who we thought he'd be as a prospect -- as KOC mentioned, he doesn't have that elite athleticism that can elevate a guard to All-Star status regardless of their ability to shoot.
That is valid, but we also may be overlooking Henderson's overall skillset as a point guard who is a capable playmaker and shooter.
Henderson remains the most intriguing player on the Blazers because of the wide range of outcomes for his career. But his improved decision-making and shooting mean we shouldn't write the 20-year-old off yet, despite his athleticism being overvalued when he entered the draft.