The NBA's underrated I-5 rivalry is one giant step closer to making a comeback. ESPN's Shams Charania reports that a vote recently passed, allowing the league to explore expanding to 32 teams, with Seattle and Las Vegas named as the two exclusive cities. It's only a matter of time before the expansion is finalized, with Charania adding that the league is targeting the 2028-29 season as the launch point for these new teams.
With two teams being added to the Western Conference, one current team will have to move to the East. Geographically, the three most logical fits are the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Memphis Grizzlies, and the New Orleans Pelicans. However, Charania named only Minnesota and Memphis as the two franchises that league executives expect to potentially realign. For the Trail Blazers' sake, let's hope Anthony Edwards gets out of their conference.
Who should Portland protect in an expansion draft?
There's another massive decision that comes with this looming expansion, and one that Portland will have more control over: the expansion draft.
Teams are able to protect up to eight players in this draft. This is where all of our years playing franchise mode on NBA2K pay off! Plenty will change between now and when the expansion draft is actually held. But for the sake of this exercise, we'll assume this is a decision Portland would have to make today.
In that case, it appears there are seven locks: Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Yang Hansen, and Damian Lillard.
This expansion draft would force Portland's hand, potentially for the better. This is a rebuilding team currently straddling two timelines with a blend of youth and veterans.
Blazers will be forced to choose between two timelines
Do they embrace their win-now timeline with Lillard's return, especially given that their young core has taken tremendous strides this season to close the gap? Avdija, Clingan, and Camara are clearly already ready to contribute to postseason basketball.
If that's the route they take, overpaying for a veteran like Jerami Grant or Jrue Holiday makes sense. That way, they could continue accelerating their timeline while improving their financial outlook. Whoever they didn't keep between Grant and Holiday would help clear up space to help retain their young core, particularly when it comes to Avdija's looming extension, as he's drastically outplaying his current contract.
Another thing to consider in this scenario: could Grant or Holiday be kept around as trade bait? Both have had bounce-back seasons with Portland, raising their value around the league in the process. It might not be a bad idea to keep Holiday in hopes of flipping him into future assets (again).
That route could come with unnecessary risk, however. Grant was viewed as one of the worst assets in the league just last season, and things could turn south quickly as he only gets more expensive. The same thought process applies to Holiday, except there are even more factors to consider regarding his age and injury history.
Why Portland should continue to prioritize its youth
The safest route could be to take the patient, a long-term approach by keeping around a younger but less impactful player. Sidy Cissoko and Vit Krejci fit perfectly with their rebuilding timeline, and both have compelling cases to stick around in this scenario.
Cissoko is just 21 years old, fits Portland's defensive identity, and only continues to get better. He showed enough to convince Portland to convert him to a standard contract, and he has even started in 26 games this year. If they want to continue investing in his upside and roster fit, it wouldn't be outlandish to protect him, given the other options.
Krejci has a safer floor and an even stronger case for keeping around when it comes to roster fit. He's struggled with his shot since coming to Portland at the trade deadline, but this is a career 39.3% three-point shooter. The fatal flaw in Portland's building blocks is their lack of shooting. They acquired Krejci at the deadline to help address that problem, and it might not be a bad idea to keep him around, as it's only a matter of time before he gets back on track.
This would be an impossible roster decision for Portland, but the reality is their roster will look significantly different when this scenario actually plays out. And the good news is, the Blazers' unconventional rebuild has positioned them to be flexible and handle this draft expansion dilemma without taking a major step back.