On the surface, Jerami Grant is having an impressive bounce-back season for the Portland Trail Blazers. The veteran forward is averaging 20 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.3 steals per game on efficient 51/42/86 shooting splits.
However, as Sam Vecenie and Bryce Simon point out on the Game Theory Podcast, Grant's on-off numbers are scary. Despite his hot shooting, the Blazers are a -4 when Grant is on the court and a +11 when he's off the court.
"I know he's averaging 20 points per game. If you check the on-off splits for Jerami Grant... It's like really bad," Vecenie said. "The offense gets kind of stagnant, I think, when Grant is out there. He's shooting a billion percent. He's averaging 20 on 50/42/86 [shooting splits] right now. It's all going in, but the on-offs are quite poor."
"That's scary then because those shooting splits probably aren't going to stay," Simon added.
The Blazers' Jerami Grant problem isn't going away
Grant is making shots, which is a positive sign considering he shot just 37.3% from the field last season and was arguably the worst contract in the entire association. While he's managed to shed that label early on thanks to a hot shooting start, the reality is that Grant is likely due to come back to Earth as the season progresses. If/when he slows down, this could quickly become another nightmare. While it won't be as disastrous as it was last season, the point remains that Portland still has a Grant problem on its hands.
Grant may not have been thrilled about the sixth man role that he went on record as saying he didn't expect to have before the season started. But in terms of on-court production, he's doing exactly what the Blazers have asked of him, which is to provide a scoring punch off the bench.
Portland has little to no offensive creation on its bench, especially with Scoot Henderson still sidelined with a hamstring injury. That's why it was a good decision by Chauncey Billups (and now Tiago Splitter) to demote Grant to this bench role. It's evident that the 31-year-old veteran doesn't fit Portland's rebuilding timeline. And part of the reason his $160 million contract is a drastic overpay is that Grant is an extremely one-dimensional player. He's 6-foot-7 with a massive 7-foot-3 wingspan, yet that only translates to three rebounds a game!?
From a playmaking standpoint, Vecenie is absolutely right about the Blazers' offense being too stagnant when it runs through Grant. This summer, Portland emphasized having more overall ball movement, which was apparent with their additions and subtractions, trading away Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton. Still, one player they couldn't offload in order to fully achieve this offensive vision was Grant.
Despite his efficient shooting, Grant is still not impacting winning for Portland. And once his shooting efficiency regresses to the mean, his flaws as a one-dimensional player will be exposed.
Things may appear to be fine for now because Grant is hitting shots and the Blazers are winning games, but this isn't a sustainable formula.