The most challenging decision the Portland Trail Blazers face this trade season is what to do with Robert Williams III. Is it time to part ways while he's healthy and playing well, or do they gamble on his injury-prone future?
The initial plan heading into the 2024-25 season was to get Williams back on the court to prove he was healthy and still impactful to boost his trade value. He played just six games for Portland last season before undergoing knee surgery for a torn ligament. And with his lengthy injury history, teams were justifiably reluctant to give up significant assets before seeing him be able to put together a consistent stretch of games.
Williams' on-court performance has sparked significant trade interest despite his injury history. He's averaging 8.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 0.9 steals this season in just 17.6 minutes. Williams also leads the team in field goal percentage by a significant margin at 73.8.
Robert Williams III is 'perhaps the most coveted center' this trade season
Bleacher Report's Jake Fischer recently covered the center market on Fischer's Substack "The People's Insider." Fischer calls Williams "perhaps the most coveted center on this season's trade market," along with Jonas Valanciunas. Williams and Valanciunas are strongly linked to the Los Angeles Lakers, but there should also be multiple other suitors.
A massive part of what makes them such intriguing trade targets is their impact relative to their contracts, especially with teams' trade options becoming more limited with the new CBA. Valanciunas signed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Washington Wizards this offseason. Williams has two years remaining of his four-year, $48 million deal. Both are team-friendly contracts for players who are talented enough to be starting-level centers in the NBA.
Fischer reports that Williams' contract outweighs concerns surrounding his injury proneness for some teams looking for a center upgrade. "And because Williams is only in Year 3 of a four-year, $48 million deal, there's been an ongoing inbound interest for Portland to navigate despite Williams' considerable injury history."
This is good news for Portland, as they've succeeded in showcasing Williams' health and value this season. But the plan has gone almost too well, as Williams' stellar play could make the Blazers reconsider parting ways with him. The Blazers may not be striking at the right time, while Williams' value is sky-high.
Blazers 'aren't eager to part ways with Williams' despite trade value and injury concerns
"Sources say that the Blazers, however, aren't eager to part ways with Williams just yet. Portland has been bullish on Williams' pick-and-roll partnership with the Blazers' young guards since team officials, sources say, made acquiring Williams a priority as part of the return package for Jrue Holiday before the start of last season", writes Fischer.
The cons outweigh the pros for Portland to keep Williams on the roster past the deadline. In the best-case scenario, Williams stays healthy, is a key contributor coming off the bench, and the Blazers have to re-sign him to a larger contract. In the worst case, he can't stay healthy, and the Blazers have wasted an asset. That's a lot of unnecessary risk for a rebuilding team to take on, and it could set back their rebuild if he were to, unfortunately, get hurt again.
In a perfect world, the Blazers would trade Ayton instead of Williams, given the massive contract discrepancy ($45 million the next two seasons). However, there is a much larger trade market for Williams for this exact reason. They also already have their rim protector of the future in a younger, less injury-prone Donovan Clingan. The Blazers have an excess amount of centers already, and with Williams receiving significant interest, it doesn't make sense to risk keeping him around.
We'll see what the Blazers decide to do by the Feb. 6 trade deadline. But don't expect a center to be traded in the immediate future. "If there's any move coming in Portland's crowded frontcourt — which also houses Deandre Ayton, Duop Reath, and recent No. 7 overall pick Donovan Clingan — it is not expected to come until much closer to the Feb. 6 deadline," writes Fischer.
That's a mistake because, with each passing day, the Blazers are gambling that Williams doesn't get hurt again and tank his trade value. With his value already as high as it will be, it would be in their best interest to remove themselves from the unnecessary risk sooner rather than later.