Wait or Cut Bait: The case for and against Portland trading Robert Williams III

The Portland Trail Blazers are a team that is extremely early in their rebuilding process. As such, they don't yet fully know what they have with their current roster or what direction to take in terms of strengths, weaknesses, untapped potential, and chemistry.

GM Joe Cronin has previously mentioned how gaining more roster clarity is a primary goal for the Blazers this season. It's only their second season of life without Damian Lillard, and they weren't able to successfully gain that clarity last year due to a multitude of injuries.

As the Blazers get deeper into the 2024-25 season, it's becoming more apparent that their positional needs have taken a 180. Portland previously had Malcolm Brogdon, one of the most reliable floor generals in the entire league, running their offense. Now, they have a backcourt that is young and primarily score-first, resulting in extremely poor assist and turnover statistics.

If their backcourt is a weakness to address, their strength that no longer needs attention is their length and positional size. The Blazers had too many defensive liabilities in the past, beginning with the offensive-minded and undersized Lillard and CJ McCollum backcourt. A main concern surrounding their rebuild was that, arguably, their three players with the highest upside were Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson, all undersized, offensive-minded guards, similar to their past era.

However, that issue has been mitigated by the fact that Cronin has built such a lengthy and athletic roster to surround those three players. The most recent examples include Toumani Camara and Robert Williams III (acquired two summers ago) and Donovan Clingan and Deni Avdija (acquired this past summer), all of whom could make a solid case for being All-Defensive Team level players, with Williams already making a Second Team appearance in 2022.

Cronin addressed multiple roster weaknesses this past offseason despite making one trade and draft selection. The next step in their rebuilding process is trading away established players. Portland has exceeded expectations so far this season and sits tied with the Chicago Bulls for the seventh-worst record in the association at 8-13.

Because of their respective records, among several other factors, it's not surprising that the Bulls and Blazers are mentioned among the five teams that could potentially be sellers leading up to the 2025 trade deadline, according to Jake Fischer on The People's Insider (subscription required).

Blazers must trade either Deandre Ayton or Robert Williams III

It's apparent that the Blazers need to worsen their roster, and subsequently their record, to improve their odds of landing a top 2025 draft prospect. One obvious position that the Blazers can afford to weaken is their center spot, as they currently have four quality centers on their roster: Deandre Ayton, Donovan Clingan, Robert Williams III, and Duop Reath.

Clingan has played exceptionally well in his limited minutes so far this season and has already seemed to solidify himself as their long-term center going forward due to his age, rookie contract, and, most importantly, impact on winning, most notably with his rebounding and rim protection as a 7-foot-2 big man with elite defensive instincts.

With Clingan seeming like one of the players the Blazers should consider untouchable in their potential fire sale, that leaves Ayton, Williams, and Reath as the odd ones out in terms of potential trade candidates.

But Reath's trade value is minimal. Despite his feel-good story as a 27-year-old rookie last season who has overcome so much to get to the NBA, Chauncey Billups and the Blazers have done a poor job of boosting his trade value. Reath has averaged just 4.7 minutes per game this season, even recording a recent DNP coach's decision despite Clingan and Williams being injured.

By the process of elimination, that leaves Ayton and Williams as the centers that the Blazers should strongly consider trading leading up to Feb. 6.

Pros and cons of the Blazers trading Robert Williams III

The case for trading Williams lies primarily in his injury history. RW3 has played over 35 games in just two of his past six seasons. That alone should make teams hesitant to inquire about Williams and give up significant assets to acquire him.

For the Blazers, the case to make for trading him is that you are selling high, as he's currently healthy and playing well. In seven games this season, Williams has averaged 9.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.9 blocks, and 1.1 steals in less than 20 minutes per game. He looks the part of a center who can protect the rim and switch onto smaller guards—a valuable skill in today's mismatch-hunting NBA.

The reasons to trade Williams are his high trade value and being a coveted asset around the league, which are also why Portland should keep him around. In addition to his impactful play, Williams fits the Blazers' rebuilding timeline as he is just entering his prime at 27. He's also on an extremely reasonable contract, owed slightly over $25 million total for the next two seasons. That's a significant factor compared to Ayton, who is owed roughly $70 million through 2025-26.

Should the Blazers move Williams?

If Williams were the Blazers' starting center, his injury history would be much more concerning and perhaps cause them to be more hesitant. However, having such good insurance policies, with Clingan being the eventual starting center and Reath more than capable of seeing increased minutes if needed, should make them feel more comfortable taking on Williams' injury risk.

When comparing Ayton and Williams, their impact on winning doesn't match up with their respective contracts. As such, it would be in the Blazers' best interest to move on from Ayton rather than Williams. Of course, this depends on what potential offers are available, as other teams will likely value Williams more, given these reasons.