Deni Avdija hasn't looked right since returning from his back injury. Portland's star is struggling with his shot, and it couldn't have come at a worse time with the play-in looming.
Avdija has played in seven games since the All-Star break, averaging 16.4 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game during that stretch. The silver lining is that his well-rounded game gives Avdija a high floor. Even with his declining scoring production, he's able to make an impact elsewhere, particularly with his playmaking as a point-forward in the Blazers offense.
But the reality is, Portland needs Avdija to be at his best in order to have a realistic shot of coming out of that play-in tournament alive.
Blazers desperately need Deni Avdija to return to form
The most concerning aspect is his three-point efficiency, as it appears the injury is affecting his ability to generate the lift needed on these long-distance shots. In those seven games, Avdija is shooting 16.1% from deep on 4.4 attempts per game.
This is a Blazers offense that has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in three-point efficiency the past few seasons. They can't afford to have their go-to option suddenly become a liability as well.
The Blazers have taken care of business against the bad teams lately, including wins against the Grizzlies, Pacers, Jazz, and Nets. But if they truly want to gain ground out West, they need to play up to their level of competition. They've had multiple tough losses to Houston, Charlotte, and Philadelphia, all of which were winnable games. Avdija didn't suit up in that Rockets loss, but his poor shooting in their most recent loss to the Sixers was essentially the deciding factor. Avdija went 2-of-12 from beyond the arc in a six-point loss. Make just two more of those for a still below average 33.3% night, and it's potentially a different outcome.
This late in the season, with so many tanking teams, we don't really notice Avdija's off nights as much because there's more margin for error. But once Portland is left to play competitive teams in the play-in gauntlet, they'll need Avdija at his best.
Portland has a puncher's chance to surprise teams out West, but only if Avdija is back playing like an All-Star. Right now, he's not at that level, and the Blazers are running out of time for him to figure it out.