The Washington Wizards are adamant that trading Deni Avdija to the Portland Trail Blazers was not a mistake. Wizards President Michael Winger cited Avdija's age as a reason behind the trade, adding that he didn't fit the age curve of their rebuilding roster.
Avdija was 23 at the time of the deal, and Washington just brought in older stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis leading up to the deadline. Those seem like contradictory moves, but Winger may actually have a point. Although Avdija's age fit their rebuilding timeline, he was already too good a player with a two-way impact on winning. By moving an established player in Avdija, Washington could successfully bottom out to "reset the roster," as Winger put it.
Wizards successfully reset their roster without Deni Avdija
The Wizards didn't get great value for a rising star, as Avdija has become an All-Star on arguably the most team-friendly contract in the NBA. But I do see where Washington was coming from regarding the timing of the deal.
Washington was coming off a 15-win season that resulted in No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr. They could rebuild around Sarr and their incoming rookie in next year's draft. To an extent, Avdija's ascension was only going to get in the way of those lottery odds. With Avdija out of the picture, Washington had a low enough floor to bottom out, positioning itself to add Tre Johnson to a promising up-and-coming roster. Now that they feel they have enough of an established young core, the Wizards can finally accelerate their rebuild, especially after adding a top pick to that group this summer.
The Blazers won the Avdija deal; there's no doubt about that. But now they face that same dilemma that Washington proactively avoided. How do they construct a roster around Avdija to have a high enough ceiling to be considered contenders? Portland's floor is too high to bottom out as long as Avdija remains on the roster, especially given the level he's played at these past two years.
Now Portland faces the dilemma Washington proactively avoided
While Washington was a team with extremes in terms of their floor and ceiling, Portland has taken a more gradual approach to improvement. There's no right or wrong way to go about these rebuilds. But by taking the Avdija route of "ethically rebuilding," the Blazers face a challenge the Wizards no longer have to overcome.
In some ways, these teams ended up at the same place. Washington added Davis and Young as veteran stars to help accelerate a young core, while Portland has Holiday, Grant, and eventually Damian Lillard around for similar purposes. But ultimately, the ceilings of these two teams will come down to the development of their youth and whether they can catch up to the timelines of these aging stars.
Portland already has a head start with Avdija's ascension, but can their recent first-round picks take a similar leap? There are serious question marks surrounding Scoot Henderson and Yang Hansen, in particular.
If Portland's young core can take that collective leap and fulfill their potential, the Avdija trade will be the cherry on top of their rebuilding sundae. If not, they'll be forced to pivot and try to find creative ways to raise their ceiling to become legitimate contenders.
The Avdija trade itself was great value, but now it's up to the rest of the Blazers youth to capitalize on that.