Ed Davis left big shoes to fill on the defensive end for the bench unit. Does Zach Collins have what it takes to fill those shoes and keep the Blazers defense in the top ten?
The Portland Trail Blazers play a unique style of defense. Instead of defending opponents aggressively and forcing turnovers, they are more reserved and focus on contesting shots.
Perfecting this defensive scheme, along with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum‘s individual improvement, made the Blazers a top-ten defense in the league last year. This was a huge step forward for a team who finished 21st in defensive rating in 2016-2017.
Here are a few defensive stats from 2016-2017.
- Steals per game: 7.0
- Blocks: 5.0
- Second chance points: 12.6
- Defensive rebound percentage: 76.8%
- Defensive rebounds: 33.5
And here are the same stats from 2017-2018.
- Steals per game: 7.2
- Blocks: 5.0
- Second chance points: 11.6
- Defensive rebound percentage: 79.1%
- Defensive rebounds: 35.3
The only significant improvement was in defensive rebounding, spearheaded by a full season of Jusuf Nurkic manning the paint.
So, despite much similarity between basic stats of each season, the Blazers finished with a defensive rating of 107.8 in 2016-2017 and 104.2 in 2017-2018.
Ed Davis impact
For an inexpensive $4.4 million, Ed Davis joined the list of Blazers players going to the Brooklyn Nets. Neil Olshey elected not to replace Davis with a veteran big man, instead trusting the development of either Caleb Swanigan or Meyers Leonard.
If neither work out, then the team turns to small ball with Al-Farouq Aminu or Maurice Harkless at power forward with the reserves.
But Davis was a major factor in Portland’s defensive scheme that was finally hitting stride. He and Zach Collins anchored the bench unit’s defense around the hoop, picking up where Nurkic left off.
While Davis was on the court, opponents shot 44% from the field. No individual Blazers player forced the opponent to shoot worse in his time on the court. The opposing team therefore shot its best percentage when any single Blazer was off the court with Davis benched (45.1%).
A major factor in those opposing percentages was his defense in the paint. Davis held opponents to 55.8% shooting within 6 feet, better than over half of NBA centers who played at least 20 games.
This contributed to Portland ranking first in defensive field goal percentage within 6 feet and 10 feet.
Davis’ work didn’t finish once the shot was taken. In 18.9 minutes, he grabbed 5 defensive rebounds per game, a rebounding percentage of 28.8%, the best of his career by over 4%.
Because the team can’t force turnovers and run in transition, playing league-leading defense near the hoop is essential to remaining top-ten defensively.
Zach Collins replacement
From Jim Moran’s Summer League rotation, it looks as though Zach Collins will fill in as the new reserve center. He’ll be expected to defend the rim like Davis did to compensate for the team’s lack of forced turnovers.
Although from a small sample, Collins led all centers (who played over 20 games) in defensive field goal percentage within 6 feet of the hoop – he held opponents to 47% shooting. In comparison, Anthony Davis had a DFG% of 51.2%, Joel Embiid 50.1% and Kristaps Porzingis 48.7%.
To directly compare with Ed Davis, opponents shot 44.7% with Collins on the floor versus 44.6% with him off. (If you don’t remember, Davis’ was 44% and 45.1%, respectively.)
So individually, Collins defends the rim better than Davis. Team-wise, opponents don’t shoot much different with him on or off the court, though.
Collins’ biggest area for improvement is defensive rebounding. He has reportedly added 20 pounds since joining the league last summer, but Summer League showed that he needs to bulk up more.
It took until the second half for me to find a successful box out by Collins. Even then, the rebound landed in a favorable spot for him and he didn't have to do much body work pic.twitter.com/XVDOusHXDP
— Nate Mann (@nate_mann13) July 10, 2018
In Summer League, he averaged 6.8 rebounds in 23.7 minutes per game. Last season, he averaged 3.3 rebounds (2.7 defensive) in 15.8 minutes. It’s an improvement, but should be taken with a grain of salt as the competition of Summer League is nowhere near that of the NBA.
Zach Collins is a solid rim defender and shot blocker. However, he needs to focus on contesting shots near the hoop rather than going for the block every time and accumulating fouls.
As the backup center, he must compensate for Portland’s guards, who don’t force many turnovers and let their man penetrate frequently. Plus, Collins won’t have Ed Davis to stay near the hoop and occupy the ball handler while he flies in for the block.
With improved rebounding and a more reserved approach to his defense, Collins can slide right into Davis’ old role and keep the Blazers defense ranking in the top ten despite not forcing enough turnovers.