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Reality Check: Trail Blazers Might Not Make Playoffs

By Perry Waggoner

Apr 29, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) hugs guard CJ McCollum (3) after defeating the Los Angeles Clippers 106-103 in game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 29, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) hugs guard CJ McCollum (3) after defeating the Los Angeles Clippers 106-103 in game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports /
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A look at why Portland might miss out on the playoffs this next season

About this time last year, the Trail Blazers were the afterthought of the NBA. LaMarcus Aldridge was gone, Wesley Matthews was gone, and Nic Batum was traded. The roster had been gutted and after a few weeks of sympathetic coverage from the media, little was spoken about Portland’s upcoming season. Before the comments section is flooded with doubter and/or hater comments (which I welcome), take a look at my article from last October: Why the Trail Blazers Will Make the Playoffs.

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Before last season, I was rather optimistic about Portland’s ability to make the postseason. A year later, that is not the case. While players, fans, and news outlets alike feel confident in the Trail Blazers’ chances to make a serious run, I just don’t see it. But here’s the catch: It’s not Portland’s fault.

It’s no secret that Rip City has endured an unfair amount of injuries throughout it’s history. From Bill Walton in the 70’s, to Brandon Roy and Greg Oden in recent years, bones and muscles have not been kind to the Pacific Northwest. But that wasn’t the case last season, as almost all of Portland’s key players stayed healthy the entire year. In fact, only one player (Meyers Leonard) missed more than seven games. Will the team be able to be as fortunate this season? History says no.

Returning players like Ed Davis and C.J. McCollum have had injuries in past years that have kept them out for a significant amount of time, and some of the newly acquired players come with their own concerns as well. Festus Ezeli missed 36 games in each of the past two seasons with knee injuries (yikes), while Shabazz Napier had a sports hernia surgery in 2015. A lot of the Trail Blazers’ success last season was dependent on the best players staying on the court. Add in a few new vulnerable players to an already seemingly cursed franchise, and it seems like Portland is due for a season-altering injury.

Dec 8, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Orlando Magic guard Shabazz Napier (13) drives to the basket against Denver Nuggets forward Will Barton (5) during the second half at Pepsi Center. The Magic won 85-74. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 8, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Orlando Magic guard Shabazz Napier (13) drives to the basket against Denver Nuggets forward Will Barton (5) during the second half at Pepsi Center. The Magic won 85-74. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports /

Sure, no one can predict when a player will get hurt. But what is more easily predicted is a much stronger Western Conference in 2016-17. At 44-38, Portland was the five seed in what was a peculiar year in the West. Had the Trail Blazers played in the Eastern Conference, the team would’ve been tied with the Pistons for the eight seed. In addition, a 44-38 team in 2014-15 would’ve missed the playoffs in the West all together. Put simply, Portland picked a great time to overachieve. They capitalized on other team’s struggles and injuries to snag a coveted spot that matched up against the very beatable LA Clippers. That won’t happen again.

It’s true that the Trail Blazers got better this offseason and actually look like a playoff team. Here’s the problem: Nine other teams do too. So who is left out when the eight best teams are locked in at the end of the year? Consider the Warriors, Spurs, and Clippers locks for the postseason. LAC didn’t get any worse and I shouldn’t have to explain why the other two teams will be in the playoffs. That leaves seven teams battling for the final five spots. The Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Jazz all had better offseasons that Portland did and figure to be major players in the second tier of the playoff picture. The way I see it, that leaves the Trail Blazers, Rockets, Timberwolves, and Pelicans vying for the 7th and 8th seeds. It will be a heck of a fight.

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Of course, if Portland stays healthy and the West doesn’t improve as much as anticipated, my entire prediction gets thrown out the window (and we’re all happy). We all know what happens when we get too optimistic – too confident – too comfortable. Pump the breaks and have reasonable expectations. If not, we’re heading down a potentially disheartening path.