Why the Fifth Seed Matters For the Blazers
Even though a playoff spot is not guaranteed yet, the focus for the Blazers should be on earning the fifth position in the Western Conference. Although C.J. McCollum didn’t care about who the Blazers square off with in the playoffs, Damian Lillard wasn’t shy about wanting the fifth seed. A first round match-up with the Los Angeles Clippers is likely the only opportunity for the Blazers to win a playoff series.
A playoff series win might be the edge the Blazers need in attracting free agent talent in the offseason. These last seven games are very important to the outside perception of the Portland Trail Blazers: It could end with being a nice regular season story, or they can be perceived as a piece away from a legitimate contender next year. With Memphis losing at home to Denver last night, it is pretty clear; the Grizzlies do not have enough NBA talent right to win consistently. The chance to make a splash in the postseason at the Clippers expense is very real. The Blazers just have to take care of business.
Memphis has turned into the NBA’s version of a retirement home. Seriously, would Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Jordan Farmar, and Chris ‘Birdman’ Andersen still have NBA jobs if it were not for the Grizzlies? It’s unlikely any of those players will play for an NBA team after this season. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, the aforementioned group of players is playing a majority of minutes lately. Obviously, this is not by choice.
The Grizzlies were ravaged by injuries. Their three best players (Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, & Zach Randolph) have been out of the lineup lately; a problem that no team can survive with long-term. It goes beyond injuries to star players though: Memphis set an NBA record with 27 players used so far this season.
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To illustrate their tough luck further, they traded for a backup point guard to Conley at the trade deadline – Mario Chalmers – and he promptly ruptured his Achilles. The Grizzlies were forced to turn to Farmar, who’s most recent basketball activity was being cut by a team in Israel. All that said to say this: Memphis is not going to win many more games this season. Even though Randolph was back in the lineup, they lost to the Denver Nuggets at home last night. Unfortunately, that was the easiest game on the remaining schedule for Memphis. Tomorrow’s clash with the Toronto Raptors and two games against the history chasing Golden State Warriors are almost for sure losses. The other remaining games are far from easy.
Extensive research of NBA playoff seeding rules confirmed that Portland will have the edge over Memphis, if the teams end up tied, based on conference win/loss record. With seven games left and only two games to make up on the Grizzlies, it will be up to the Trail Blazers fifth seed to lose. Outside of a trip to Golden State, the rest of the schedule is winnable, but not easy. The important note is that five of the seven games are at home, where the Blazers have proven they can beat anyone.
It goes beyond injuries to star players though: Memphis set an NBA record with 27 players used so far this season.
Digging into the schedule further: With their playoff seed solidified, the Thunder will likely rest their good players on the second night of a back-to-back on April 6th. The conspiracy theorist in me would also say the Thunder should be motivated for the Blazers to win that game and pass Memphis in the standings. (Because unless you’re Derek Fisher, who wouldn’t want to see Matt Barnes around playoff time?) However, that kind of speculation negates the focus of this article; The Blazers need to take care of their own business these last seven games and they will earn the fifth spot in the Western Conference. It’s that simple. Memphis does not have the fire power to win games these next two weeks.
It starts tonight with the Boston Celtics. They will be fighting for seeding in the Eastern Conference and are welcoming one of their best players, Jae Crowder, back to the court. It is by no means an easy game, but every game in the Rose Garden Moda Center is winnable.
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If the most recent trip to the Staples Center was a preview of what a Clippers-Blazers playoff series could look like, it will be wildly entertaining and Portland has to like their chances.