Allen Crabbe is headed to restricted free agency, what price tag will he carry?
Allen Crabbe has put together a fantastic season this year and the timing couldn’t be better for the former PAC-12 Player of the Year. The reserve guard is heading to RFA (restricted free agency) this summer. His massive jump in production will be at the heart of his argument for a pay raise. The Trail Blazers already feature two strong guards, so it will be a big risk to commit a healthy amount of money to a player who has no clear path to the starting line up. Will Neil Olshey (Trail Blazers GM) find a way to make the cap numbers work?
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Crabbe is a prototype shooting guard for today’s NBA. He plays effective defense and is capable of shooting at a high percentage from multiple spots on the court. Combine those skills with a market flush with cash and you have a recipe for a big pay raise. To get an idea for the type of compensation he is in for we should look at a player with a comparative stat line. Crabbe is currently carrying a stat line that looks like this: 10.2 PPG / .377 3P% / .455 FG%. Those number are similar to the numbers that Jodie Meeks put up in the 2013-14 season. Here is a look at Meeks’ numbers from that season: 15.7 PPG / .401 3P% / .455 FG%.
Meeks was able to parlay those numbers into a three year 18 million dollar contract with the Pistons. His six million dollar a year cap number roughly accounted for 10% of the salary cap that season (2014-15 Cap: 63 Million). The 2016-17 salary cap is projected to be around 89 million dollars, so if the same percentage holds up for Crabbe he will be looking at a salary that sits at about 9 million dollars a year.
A nine million dollar a year deal doesn’t sound that bad when it is isolated. The questions start to arise when you start to factor in the salaries of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Lillard’s extension will kick in next year, so for the next five years he will never make under 20 million dollars a season (topping out at 27 million a year). McCollum is still on his rookie scale contract through the 2016-17 season, but he will be in for a hefty raise once that expires.
McCollum will likely receive an extension similar to the one Khris Middleton received in Milwaukee this past offseason. Middleton is set to make roughly 15 million dollars a year over the next five seasons. If the Trail Blazers retain their young trio, they’d be looking at a committed salary of 45-50 million dollars in the guard rotation alone.
It is no secret that Olshey will be looking to upgrade the post positions this offseason, which won’t be a cheap endeavor. The cap numbers soon become very unfriendly going forward. Retaining Gerald Henderson might become a bigger focus. Henderson fills a similar role as Crabbe, but due to age his cap number will be slightly lower.
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The biggest thing that the Trail Blazers have in their favor is having an owner with deep pockets. Portland has the ability to exceed the cap to retain players like Crabbe and McCollum (when the time comes). Luxury tax penalties carry a lot more weight now, but having an owner like Paul Allen mitigates the problem to a degree. Maintaining flexibility and finding a premier big man should be the top priorities for Olshey this offseason. Finding a way to keep Crabbe on a team friendly contract would be a bonus.