How Does C.J. McCollum Compare With Other All-Star Candidates?
Christian James (C.J.) McCollum is one of the feel-good stories of the NBA this season, going from 6.8 points-per-game last year to 20.5 per-game currently. The Portland Trail Blazers have surprised a few teams this season and sit just a half game out of the eighth seed in the playoffs. McCollum has played a large part of their mild success. The NBA’s front-runner for the Most Improved Player of the Year award also has a strong case to be included in the all-star weekend – and not just as a 3-point shooting contestant.
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There are 12 roster spots on the Western Conference All-star team. Last year, six of those spots were filled by guards. It is likely five or six spots will be guards this year. There are four guards who do not warrant any discussion to be included: Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and James Harden. That leaves one or two spots up for grabs. Three of those four spots locked up are point guards. The Western Conference needs at least one more shooting guard to fill out the roster.
The obvious choice is Klay Thompson. He made the team last year and is putting up similar stats on a 37-4 team. However, McCollum’s stats are eerily similar to Thompson’s.The biggest disparities between the players is Thompson’s excellent shooting percentage and McCollum’s lead in assists. One of the gripes with McCollum and praises of Thompson is defense. It is tough to capture defense statistically, but when analyzing on/off court splits for each player, McCollum surprisingly fares very well. Opposing teams score 3.4 less points per 100 possessions against the Blazers with McCollum on the floor. With Thompson on the floor, opponents score 2.7 less points per 100 possessions against the Warriors. While Thompson is still the bigger name and plays for a historically great team, these two players are much closer than most realize in terms of value to their teams.
Beyond Thompson and McCollum, you have to really dig to find the next most deserving shooting guards in the West. J.J. Redick? Rodney Hood? According to ESPN’s Estimated Wins Added statistic, McCollum is second best at the shooting guard position at 5.4 wins added. (Harden has 10.7) Thompson is third at 4.8. There is a large drop-off to the fourth place Redick. The point is, if the Western Conference selects three shooting guards on the roster, Thompson and McCollum should both make it. However, this is the appropriate time to bring up the elephant in the room: Kobe Bryant leads in NBA all-star voting. It is a waste of time, effort and statistics to explain how Bryant is a well below average player in the league this season; any naked eye can see that. It is a shame that he will likely keep McCollum and potentially Thompson out of the all-star game. Bryant is no doubt a living legend, but when we debate about the greats of basketball, should he really be credited with an 18th all-star game appearance? (Or his 17th last season?)
Barring an injury, McCollum likely will not make the all-star roster this season. But with Bryant’s impending retirement, an all-star spot will open up in the West next season. Sorting through Western Conference shooting guards, the position surprisingly lacks star power after Harden. To anyone outside of Portland, McCollum is surprisingly already a worthy candidate.