While a great deal of things remain uncertain for the Portland Trail Blazers, the one thing that everyone seems to agree on is that this is an important year for third-year guard C.J. McCollum.
After his revelatory playoff performance and the departure of the majority of the Trail Blazers’ starting five, McCollum will be expected to take the next step in his development to ease the burden that now lies on All-Star Damian Lillard’s shoulders.
By all indications, he seems ready for this moment. If anything he’s been chomping at the bit for this role. The only question that remains is what is the best situation for McCollum to succeed and help the Trail Blazers? Is it as a starter alongside Lillard, or is at the leader of the second unit?
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There are pros and cons to him starting or coming off the bench but a closer examination may divulge the answer.
McCollum didn’t suddenly make a jump in the playoffs; he had been playing well for most of the second half of the season. The last 15 games he played were in particular an impressive stretch for him. He averaged 19.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per 36 minutes while having a true-shooting percentage of 59.4 percent.
After dealing with multiple injuries, McCollum was putting it all together and starting to play to his potential.
Although his stellar play can be attributed to natural development, there’s one aspect of his game that deserves special credit: his off-ball movement. Coming out college, McCollum was accustomed to having in the ball in his hands, but could not find the same opportunities in the NBA.
Now he has learned to play off his teammates and even feed off the attention they receive. McCollum knows how to react to his teammates’ movements and score off of them:
He has learned to actively seek out offense without the ball, and become a dangerous shooter because of it. On spot-up opportunities, McCollum scored 1.16 points per possession (PPP) while having an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 58.9 percent.
On catch-and-shoot opportunities, he shot 40.7 percent from three-point range and had an eFG% of 61.3.
Although McCollum has grown, he still has a ways to go when he is the primary ball handler. He occasionally fell back into bad habits and hoisted up eye-roll inducing shots instead of initiating the offense. Even when he does try the results are mixed. As the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, McCollum scored .82 PPP.
It’s not bad but it could be better; Lillard scored .90 PPP on pick-and-rolls as the ball handler.
But the most troubling thing is his lack of assists. During his last 15 games, he only averaged 2.4 assists per 36 minutes, and that number actually decreased in the playoffs to an unacceptable 0.4. As a lead guard, that just can’t happen.
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There will always be concerns on the defensive end too. Admittedly he has made strides on the end there always be a limitation to what he can provide because of his height. Playing him and Lillard together will be untenable against most of the league’s starting backcourts.
This is why deciding his role is hard to determine. His off-ball offense has progressed to the level where it seems like a reasonable idea to play him alongside Lillard. Last year, McCollum was at his best when others like Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge manipulated opposing defenses and created scoring opportunities for him.
But if he becomes a starter, the defense would suffer because of the backcourt’s limitations, adding more pressure on the front line to cover up their mistakes.
If McCollum were to come off the bench he would have the responsibility of being the main creator for an offensively challenged lineup, a task in which he may not be completely up to. Though there are concerns, McCollum coming off the bench may be best.
Even if he still struggles being a creator for others, he can keep the second unit alive with his own scoring like Jamal Crawford or Gerald Green are capable of. Hopefully that’s not his ceiling as a player but it’s up to McCollum to prove he can be more.
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