Trail Blazers’ potential 1st round opponents by statistical matchup
With the Trail Blazers officially locked into the fourth seed and home court advantage through the first round of the playoffs no longer a possibility, it is worthwhile to take a look at how the Trail Blazers stack up against their four, potential first round matchups.
Now with 80 games down, the Trail Blazers own the league’s fourth highest net rating (4.0) on the season. But, against the four potential first-round matchups the team’s net rating is an average of -1.7, and the Trail Blazers only have positive net ratings against the Spurs and Clippers.
Not one of the aforementioned teams is a particularly advantageous matchup for the Trail Blazers.
The Rockets have James Harden presenting a defensive challenge to the Trail Blazers without Wesley Matthews. The Clippers boast two players in Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan that belong in the DPOY discussion (and have altered Portland’s shot selection more than any team in the league this season). The Grizzlies, though slumping a bit lately, have owned the Trail Blazers this season, allowing Portland to score just 94 points per game. In four games against Memphis this season, Portland has a net rating of -11.6.
The Spurs have been the Trail Blazers’ best matchup of the four over the regular season. Portland is above their season average net rating against San Antonio at 4.2, despite a January matchup in which the Trail Blazers lost 110-96.
Defensively, San Antonio has done little to dictate tempo or shot selection against Portland. The Trail Blazers’ average pace against the Spurs this season is 94.95—just 1.39 possessions below their season average of 96.34.
A look at the shot charts against these four potential matchups shows that the Spurs, unlike the other three teams, pretty much allowed the Trail Blazers’ offense to operate as it is accustomed to, with LaMarcus Aldridge doing his work on the left side of the floor while the outside shooters shoot above league average from all-around the three point arc.
Blazers’ shot charts against the Rockets, Spurs, Grizzlies, and Clippers this season
Top left: Rockets, top right: Spurs, bottom left: Grizzlies, bottom right: Clippers
Shot distribution is the key here. Compared to the Blazers’ average shot chart, the three teams not from San Antonio have done much more to alter the Blazers’ shot distribution in the regular season.
The Spurs just seem to play better basketball in the playoffs, though—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom. Last season, the Spurs did improve marginally over their regular season numbers in the playoffs. The Spurs playing better basketball in the playoffs is largely just accepted as a thing that happens.
In reality, the picture isn’t so clear. It is not as though the Spurs experience some mythical, statistical uptick in performance once the postseason begins. They had one of the most astonishing championships in recent memory last season, and they were really only slightly better in most advanced metrics.
Spurs 2013-14 Playoffs vs Regular Season
But as a fan and a basketball watcher, do I want the Trail Blazers to play the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs? Absolutely not. That’s terrifying. But, the West is so stacked this season I’m not sure any of the Trail Blazers’ other potential matchups are any better.
Every team has its advantages and disadvantages, its mouth-watering matchups and its nightmare opponents, and the Western Conference playoff bracket will depend more on teams leveraging what advantages they do have more swiftly and efficiently than their opponents. Oh, and luck. Any team can beat any team in a seven game series this year—okay, maybe the New Orleans Pelicans or the beaten up Oklahoma City Thunder have little chance against the Golden State Warriors. Outside of the 1-8 matchup, anything can happen.
[Graphics via StatMuse Beta]