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@ripcityproject Defense is key and somehow we lose many game for turning bad offense into bad defense for. How can Stott fix that?
— Leuz Dolla 🇸🇳 🇬🇲 🇬🇳 (@Asallsince1993) April 12, 2015
I think a lot of the bad offense comes from a self-perpetuating problem with the Trail Blazers’ approach to regaining momentum. Often, when they face a growing deficit or a shrinking buffer, they substitute high percentage shots for the first shot (generally a three) they can get—very much like a gambler who hopes to regain his/her lost money as quickly as possible by betting against the odds.
Sometimes this strategy works well (the Trail Blazers are loaded with 3-point shooters after all), which is where they get that reputation for never being out of a game. Other times, taking contested shots early in the shot clock just shortens fruitless possessions and results in a lot of extra running and time spent on the defensive end.
This breakdown is especially glaring right now without their primary hustle defenders. Wesley Matthews (Achilles) is the best individual defender on the team- hands down- and Arron Afflalo (Shoulder) is the best at fighting through screens in Terry Stotts’ pick and roll defense. Neither is available at this time, which means that Portland’s first line of defense is Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
The already sieve-like duo of Lillard and McCollum is weakened further by the energy they must expend as scorers in a rushed offense. It is not sustainable for them to force shots on one end then sprint back on defense; specifically since the Trail Blazers don’t hedge the P&R, leaving Lillard and McCollum out of gas to go over screens. This enervating cycle creates lapses that make everyone else have to work harder too.
Does the defensive system need to be fixed? Not really. The Trail Blazers don’t hedge because drop-down defense allows them to cover the perimeter at a high level. Their desire to force midrange shots sometimes gets them killed in the paint, but it’s a reasonable tradeoff in modern basketball. The guards don’t (and shouldn’t) get breaks.
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In which case, I would like to see any major changes come on the offensive end. As you suggested, sometimes poor offense leads to poor defense. Maybe relying on “Lillard Time” isn’t a viable strategy. At least, not while the team is so shorthanded. They need to focus on getting more players involved, even if only for an extra pass. I would rather they score slowly and effectively than gamble on scoring quickly.
For the most part, I think Stotts could go a long way toward fixing this by stopping to recognize when the back and forth is becoming cyclical. The hurry-up doesn’t function as well if it is predictable, because the opposing defense doesn’t have to work very hard. Slowing things down to utilize all five players would spread the energy cost a little more evenly between players and teams alike, giving the Trail Blazers an opportunity to operate more smoothly and prevent losing control of games.