Portland Trail Blazers 2015 NBA Playoffs outlook

While a mathematical guarantee is still a ways away for the Portland Trail Blazers, they are going to make the 2015 NBA playoffs. I don’t think there are many who doubt this notion, but to put the worrying mind at ease, let’s take a look at what it would take for the Trail Blazers to fall from the top-8 in the West. The Conference is tough, so it’s not impossible, but I think you will be comfortable with the Trail Blazers’ situation by the end of this article if you are not already.

Dec 23, 2014; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) attempts a shot against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, the Trail Blazers have a record of 43-20 with 19 games remaining on their schedule. The 8^th seeded New Orleans Pelicans have a record of 36-29 with 17 games remaining, as do the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Trail Blazers have an eight game lead on each of them at this point.

Now, the absolute worst that the Trail Blazers can do in the remainder of the regular season and still guarantee retention of a playoff spot is 10-9 (53-29). Theoretically, the Pelicans or Thunder could still tie them by finishing the season 17-0, but that won’t happen. If it did, the Trail Blazers would still keep 8^th seed because they have already won the season series against both teams, despite future meetings to come.

So for the Trail Blazers to fall from the top-8 in the West, they would have to play below .500 for the remainder of the regular season. The best they can do and not make the playoffs is 9-10, but even then the Pelicans or Thunder would have to be absolutely perfect to take their spot. Despite losing Wesley Matthews to a torn Achilles, the Trail Blazers are still favored to win most of their remaining games.

Portland Trail Blazers schedule

MAR 15 – @ Toronto Raptors (39-26)
MAR 16 – @ Washington Wizards (38-28)
MAR 18 – @ Miami Heat (29-36)
MAR 20 – @ Orlando Magic (21-46)
MAR 21 – @ Memphis Grizzlies (46-20)
MAR 24 – vs. Golden State Warriors (52-13)
MAR 25 – @ Utah Jazz (29-36)
MAR 27 – @ Phoenix Suns (34-33)
MAR 28 – vs. Denver Nuggets (25-41)
MAR 30 – vs. Phoenix Suns (34-33)
APR 1 – vs. Los Angeles Clippers (42-24)
APR 3 – @ Los Angeles Lakers (17-47)
APR 4 – vs. New Orleans Pelicans (36-29)
APR 6 – @ Brooklyn Nets (26-38)
APR 8 – vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (14-50)
APR 9 – @ Golden State Warriors (52-13)
APR 11 – vs. Utah Jazz (29-36)
APR 13 – @ Oklahoma City Thunder (36-29)
APR 15 – @ Dallas Mavericks (43-22)

There are a few tough back-to-backs left, a few arenas that will be difficult to waltz into, and of course the Trail Blazers wouldn’t be the Trail Blazers if they didn’t drop a winnable game or two, but they are a better team than most listed. On paper, they are favorites to win all but four games: two against the Warriors, one against the Grizzlies, and one against the Clippers.

Sure, this doesn’t mean that they will go 15-4, but something like 12-7 is certainly reasonable and still within the parameters of a playoff guarantee. Heck, they could go 1-18 and the Pelicans/Thunder would still have to play above .500 to knock them out. Barring injury (knock on wood) the Trail Blazers have a postseason in their future.