THE SEASON IS HERE!
I couldn’t be more excited for the NBA and the Trail Blazers to be back. It’s going to be a great season, regardless of what actually happens. The electricity of last year still hasn’t worn off. It seems like yesterday that Damian Lillard was burying the Houston Rockets with his series-winning three, and now the new season is starting up.
In honor of the Trail Blazers tipping off tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, I’ve put together my five bold predictions for the season. They are a little out there (they are bold after all), but I think there is at least a semi-good chance of each one actually happening. And, to me, they aren’t those “You’re telling me there’s a chance” moments from Dumb and Dumber:
These are at least semi-reasonable predictions. They’re bold, but it’s better than a one in a million chance, I promise.
1. Lillard will average 25+ PPG
This prediction isn’t that far-fetched. I touched on it a little in my column about Lillard and third-year point guard progression.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2014.
Last season, Lillard averaged 20.7 PPG and only shot 42 percent from the field. Assuming similar production, if Lillard averages more than five free throw makes per game and makes just another basket or two, he will be averaging close to 25 PPG.
That’s very possible when you consider the amount of time Lillard could be spending off-the-ball and in catch-and-shoot situations with distributor Steve Blake taking over some of Mo Williams‘ old duties. Regardless of what Head Coach Terrys Sotts has said about playing younger players, I think he is going to stick to using veteras when he can. With Blake taking over the point guard spot for around 20 minutes per game, Lillard should have more time to play off-the-ball.
I understand the defensive ramifications of a Blake-Lillard backcourt, but it’s not as bad as the Williams-Lillard backcourt, and they averaged 13.5 minutes per game together last season.
2. Wesley Matthews or Nicolas Batum will be an All-Star
This prediction might be a little bit of a stretch, but when you look at how Batum and Matthews played last season in spurts, it’s not ridiculous to think they could possibly shoot 40 percent from three for the whole first-half of the season, or something similar that could vault their way into the discussion.
Because of the voting rules that don’t separate point guards from shooting guards, Matthews doesn’t have much of a chance because of how many good point guards there are in the West. Outside of James Harden and Kobe Bryant at shooting guard, the race is wide open, but the slots are closed shut. Matthews probably won’t make the All-Star team unless he makes a massive leap.
Batum, on the other hand, has somewhat a chance because there is no one behind Kevin Durant as the sure-fire second-best small forward in the West. To me, it is Batum, and if he plays like he did in the final two games of the FIBA World Cup, he has a chance to be an All-Star this season. However; forwards and centers are all lumped together as well, so things get trickier when considering the plethora of big men (minus Kevin Love, who is now in the Eastern Conference).
3. The Trail Blazers will be a top-three seed in the West
Okay, think about this:
Best case scenario for the Thunder, Durant misses 20 games, and they still have a chance to capture a top-three seed. But… if Durant takes his time recovering, which is his intention, the Thunder could struggle to retain favorable playoff position. That opens the door for someone else.
Plus, you know San Antonio is going to rest starters. They don’t care if they win 54 games or 60 games as long as the matchup is right for them in the playoffs. That also opens the door for someone else, if the Spurs have wiggle room to slip.
The Clippers are my only lock to be a top-three seed in the West right now. The Trail Blazers can make a reasonable push for one of the other spots in the top-3; especially if opposition is not at 100 percent.
Of course, Golden State, Dallas, Memphis, and Houston will also be competing for those top spots, but Portland has the fire power to get there, trust me.
4. Portland will make the Western Conference Finals
This is quite bold, honestly, but there is no realistic reason why they can’t be part of the discussion. Injuries and weird things happen every season. Who knows if Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, or the other top players in the West are going to last the seasons.
If something crazy happens, like Westbrook tearing his meniscus in the first-round of the playoffs in 2012-13, Portland might find themselves in position to make a run at the Western Conference crown, like the Memphis Grizzlies in 2012-13.
5. Chris Kaman will surprise everyone and be the missing piece to the puzzle
Speaking of weird things, Chris Kaman is going to have a breakout season. There is no doubt in my mind. The Trail Blazers desperately needed a backup big man, and Kaman brings a skill set with a solid low-post game that the Trail Blazers didn’t have in before.
Of course, Robin Lopez is still going to be the primary option, but there were times when Lopez got in foul trouble or had to rest and the Trail Blazers were exposed down low during that time. Kaman is going to steal a few of Lopez’s minutes and also be there for when the Blazers need someone down the stretch.
Kaman is going to be good, I swear.
Happy NBA season, everybody!