While young point guards often struggled in their first few years in the league, Damian Lillard took the league by storm, unanimously winning Rookie of the Year in 2013 and making his first All-Star game in his second season.
There’s still a ton of room for improvement in Lillard’s game, especially offensively. Lillard will likely never be a great defender, but he’s not too far from being manageable. Based on the league’s best point guards and their improvement from their second season to third season, there is a good indication that Lillard will continue to improve at a steady rate.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2014.
It is clear where Lillard struggles; he doesn’t have a great field goal percentage compared to some of the other stars around the league. Quite frankly, that’s okay with me. I’d like to see Lillard shoot more and live with a lower shooting percentage. It’s not all about efficiency, as some would have it.
He is already one of the league’s elite guards, but there are other older players who have shown major improvement between their second and third year in the league that make me even more hopeful for Lillard’s third-season advances.
Chris Paul – 2nd and 3rd NBA seasons
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2014.
Paul made huge improvements in his assists per game and emerged as one of the best point guards in the league in his third season. Although his numbers have mildly waxed and waned since then, they have never dipped back down to where they were in his second year.
As Lillard becomes more and more comfortable in the league, I am confident he will improve his pedestrian assist numbers, but he’s never going to be the passer Paul is. I don’t mean that in a negative way either. Lillard will not get that many opportunities for assists because he is generally surrounded by facilitators like Steve Blake and Nicolas Batum so he can run off screens.
Derrick Rose – 2nd and 3rd NBA seasons
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2014.
Although their games are much different, Rose and Lillard have very similar offensive stats based on their first two seasons in the league. Rose isn’t the shooter Lillard is, but Lillard isn’t the finisher Rose is. Together, they’d be the best point guard the world has ever seen.
Anyway, Rose, perhaps, made the biggest improvement of any current point guard between his second and third year in the league. As you recall, Rose won MVP in 2010-11. While I don’t expect Lillard to make that kind of improvement, if Lillard shoots a better percentage from inside the arch and can find a way to either finish at the rim or become an assist-juggernaut, I don’t see a large statistical jump in points per game or assists per game out of the question.
Deron Williams – 2nd and 3rd NBA seasons
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2014.
Before you start groaning about Williams and how much bad he is now, you have to remember when Williams was a really, really, really good point guard. Lillard’s stats are comparable to Williams because he was a capable three-point shooter. Williams is another guy who has the ball in his hands all the time, and you can see Williams progression in every aspect of his game in the jump to the third season.
Of course, not every point guard makes a statistical jump in their third season. Stephen Curry missed most of his third season with ankle injuries, but broke out in his fourth season. Kyrie Irving has stayed roughly the same over his three years in the league, statistically. So, there is also a good chance Lillard could stay the same, statistically as well. But like Paul, Rose, and Williams, Lillard could make some major statistical improvements this season and have another “breakout season,” the third of his career.
The sky is the limit, offensively, for Lillard. If he can figure out a way to finish at the rim or “John Stockton” his way through the paint, there is no reason to think Lillard can’t enter in the conversation for best point guard in the league relatively soon.