The Portland Trail Blazers were just a 21-win team last season. They were expected to finish similarly this year but have drastically exceeded those expectations. Despite the relative success, they have been mathematically eliminated from play-in contention. It's been a productive season in terms of progress and player development, but the most challenging task is still ahead.
The Blazers are too good to tank for a better draft spot yet lack the star power to be serious playoff contenders. That's an issue that GM Joe Cronin will need to fix, potentially as soon as this offseason. If left unaddressed, it will risk putting Portland in NBA purgatory as a consistent middle-of-the-pack team.
Two teams have recently taken significant leaps and achieved the next step of making the playoffs. Both took different paths in their rebuild approach, and the Blazers can learn a lesson from each one.
1. Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons have had an even more surprising season than the Blazers, miraculously going from a league-worst 14-win team to already clinching a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference. A massive reason for their leap can be attributed to the play of All-Star Cade Cunningham.
He's a candidate for Most Improved Player of the Year, but our pick is Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels. Cunningham is a former No. 1 overall pick and was already showing his star ascension towards the end of 2023-24, averaging 24.4 points on an improved 39.6 percent shooting from three.
There are some parallels between Avdija's end-of-season run and Cunningham's the previous year. They both have versatility due to their playmaking and positional size, and their shooting is finally catching up to the rest of their skill set, making them complete players who are incredibly difficult to contain.
Now that Avdija has embraced this point-forward role in Portland, the next step for their roster construction is to surround him with more shooting, similar to what Detroit has done with Cunningham.
2. Houston Rockets
In a lot of ways, the Blazers are just one year behind the Houston Rockets' progression. Houston finished the 2023-24 season like Portland did this year. They turned a corner after the All-Star break and carried that momentum into the following season.
Here is Houston's record for the past three seasons:
- 2022-23: 22-60
- 2023-24: 41-41
- 2024-25: 52-27
A 52-win season isn't realistic to expect for the Blazers next year, and their win total largely depends on how aggresive GM Joe Cronin decides to be this summer. But there is a ton of overlap between the two teams.
Houston and Portland are incredibly athletic and defensive-minded teams. Both have a young core that is progressing to the point where they are becoming better than their veterans. Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, and Jalen Green have already surpassed the likes of Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet.
Portland isn't quite there yet, as this was always going to be a transitional season for them. But 2025-26 should be the season their young core takes that next step and carries more of the load, showing they're ready to enter a winning phase.