Mike Schmitz has come a long way in his basketball career, from ESPN draft analyst to Portland Trail Blazers assistant GM to, most recently, GM of the Dallas Mavericks. It's a much-deserved rise and a testament to his eye for player evaluation.
Most notably for Portland, Schmitz was high on Deni Avdija as a prospect entering the draft, which played a role in their decision to acquire him from the Washington Wizards. There are countless other examples of Schmitz hitting on prospects.
The Blazers are hoping the unconventional draft selection of Yang Hansen proves to be his latest hidden gem.
Blazers took a controversial gamble on Yang Hansen
Schmitz and Sergi Oliva were suspended for two weeks for illegal contact the Blazers made with Hansen back in 2023. This was a multi-year scouting mission, and Portland's front office literally put their jobs on the line in their belief in the relatively unknown Chinese big man.
Early returns from Hansen's rookie season are mixed, and his NBA career outcomes are extreme. The floor is Portland's first-round pick going to waste, and Hansen being out of the league. The ceiling is Hansen being utilized as an offensive hub, similar to that of Nikola Jokic in Denver.
In all likelihood, his career will fall between those two extremes, but they are very real outcomes, making this a much higher-risk, higher-reward gamble for a Blazers team that desperately needs more star power.
It's too early to say whether Schmitz made the right evaluation, as Hansen's rookie season confirmed this is indeed a multi-year project Portland is taking on.
The questions raised are valid. Portland invested another first-round pick on a center after Donovan Clingan became their starting center of the future, giving them a logjam even in a best-case scenario. The opportunity cost was massive, considering the Blazers officially traded away an All-Rookie First Team selection, Cedric Coward, who would've given them much-needed shooting and wing depth to better balance their roster.
That said, after hearing how Schmitz has adapted his evaluation process to align with modern NBA trends, it's easier to understand how Portland concluded that the Hansen gamble was worthwhile.
Mike Schmitz describes the evolution of upside in the NBA
During the Final Four Speaker Series, Schmitz discussed the evolution of upside in the NBA, saying it's less about athleticism and more about skill set and feel for the game.
"As the game has changed, my evaluation style has certainly changed," Schmitz said. "In the past, it used to be athleticism that kind of dictated your 'upside.' This guy is long and athletic; he has so much upside. Now, it's minds, and it's your skillset. That's what dictates your upside. I don't think anyone would've described Nikola Jokic as having this insane upside. I don't think anyone would've even said the same about Luka Doncic... now with the way the game is played, it's positional size, it's skill, and it's feel for the game."
Hansen checks every box in Schmitz's new definition of upside.
Yang Hansen checks every box for a high-upside prospect
Positional size? Hansen is listed at 7-foot-1, 270 pounds at just 20 years old.
Skill? That was on full display in the Summer League and G League games, where he was utilized more as the primary offensive initiator. When he has the ball in his hands, whether it's in the post or at the top of the key, Hansen is a legitimate offensive threat with the well-rounded arsenal that's drawn "Chinese Jokic" comparisons. He has crafty footwork, a soft touch around the rim, and an encouraging three-point shot that will only continue to improve.
But it's the feel for the game that makes Hansen stand out amongst the rest in his draft class.
His upside as that potential offensive hub lies in his greatest strength: his ability to anticipate plays. That's valuable on the defensive end as well, with his rim protection. But the court vision and passing is the one thing that could separate Hansen from the rest of the centers around the league. He's already made tremendous passes as a rookie, constantly finding Portland's athletic backcourt on backdoor cuts despite playing for limited stretches.
Time will tell whether the pick actually pans out in the Blazers' favor. The limited stretches were justified as Tiago Splitter couldn't rely on the rookie and didn't want to throw him into the fire. Hopefully, he gets more comfortable and gains more confidence as he continues to adjust to life in the NBA and the United States.
We understand Blazers fans who fall on both sides of the Hansen pick, especially after the up-and-down nature of his rookie season, taking the league by storm in the summer, only to completely disappear in the regular season.
But there's no denying the upside, as Schmitz describes it, applies to Hansen. He's a gifted center who really could be Portland's path to closing the star power gap in the Western Conference. Not to say they should count on that, but it's a possibility, and that alone should make fans feel more comfortable about the draft decision.
Whether it pans out or not, there's now more clarity to the evaluation process behind Portland's swing.
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