Trail Blazers' hot start to the season may not be sustainable

The 7-11 Portland Trail Blazers are just one game back from the Sacramento Kings and two games back from the Minnesota Timberwolves, who they also somehow managed to beat twice as part of their three-game winning streak in mid-November.

Their record, by their standards as a rebuilding team that finished at the bottom of the Western Conference with just 21 wins last season, has exceeded expectations. That's not even accounting for their brutal schedule to start the season, with all but one game so far coming against teams in the West. But the Blazers' luck may have already run out.

The Trail Blazers are overperforming

One night, Portland wins a tightly fought battle and looks like a potential play-in contender. The next, they're getting demolished and looking like a team that could land Cooper Flagg next summer. Part of that inconsistency comes with the territory of having one of the youngest teams in the entire league. But it's also going to be problematic when they aren't winning these 50-50 games. John Schuhmann of NBA.com highlights this concern in his NBA power rankings (which were released prior to the Blazers' 123-98 blowout loss to the Grizzlies).

Schuhmann says," Of course, while four of the Blazers' seven wins have been by single digits, they have five losses by 23 points or more. Portland is 7-10 with the point differential (-7.5 points per game) of a team that's 4-13."

Well, losing to the Grizzlies by 25 points certainly isn't going to help that differential. They now sit at -8.5, which is the fourth worst in the league, ahead of only the Wizards, Pelicans, and Jazz. The Blazers have serious offensive concerns surrounding their lack of shooting and playmaking. They have the worst offensive rating in the entire league at 104.4. That's bound to catch up to them at some point.

Schuhmann mentions that "four of the Blazers' last five games have been within five minutes, and they've scored 41 points on 28 clutch possessions (1.46 per) over that stretch, with Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant shooting a combined 10-14 on clutch shots."

What Portland is doing has been entertaining to watch, but it isn't sustainable, especially with their demanding schedule and injuries to multiple key players. The silver lining is that long-term, it may be in the Blazers' best interest if they do end up regressing to the mean and start losing some of these toss-up games to land a better pick.