On the heels of their first-round exit to the Indiana Pacers, along with Damian Lillard's torn Achilles, the Milwaukee Bucks will be forced to at least think about their future with Giannis Antetokounmpo. That is potentially great news for the Portland Trail Blazers.
And they have their return from the 2023 Lillard trade to thank.
Portland can hold Giannis suitors for ransom
Not everyone expects the Bucks to trade Giannis. The calculus changes if he asks for out, but he’s made it clear, on numerous occasions, that he will first and foremost try to keep winning in Milwaukee before exploring other options.
Most believe the gravity of Lillard’s injury will erode Antetokounmpo's allegiance to Milwaukee. Dame may not suit up at all in 2025-26, and he will be entering his age-36 season in 2026-27, possibly a shell of the All-NBA talent for whom the Bucks traded. In the interim, Milwaukee has neither the cap flexibility nor trade assets to effectively reorient the roster around Giannis.
This all combines to make this summer an inflection point. But it also works in service of not trading Giannis. The Bucks don’t currently control their own first-round pick until 2031. There is no retooling through the draft lottery for them. What’s the point of flipping a franchise icon, who remains one of the NBA’s five best players, when you’d be left to rebuild using other teams’ picks, potentially treading water in the middle of nowhere.
That is where the Blazers come into play. They have swap rights on the Bucks’ first-round pick in 2028, 2029, and 2030. The full details are a little more complex, but the overarching reality is, they have the ability to send out ownership of three out of Milwaukee’s next six drafts.
If the Bucks are going to rebuild, it behooves them to control as many of their first-rounders as possible. Think about what the Brooklyn Nets did this past summer, when they regained ownership of their 2025 and 2026 picks from the Houston Rockets, carving out a two-year window in which they could rebuild unencumbered. Think about the Phoenix Suns, and why everyone who’s anyone believes they should try sending Devin Booker or Kevin Durant to Houston, so they, too, can reacquire a huge chunk of their own future.
Similar logic applies here. Prospective Giannis suitors know it, too. Which raises the question: How much could Portland extract from the most aggressive Giannis destinations if they send out one, two, or even all three swaps?
It is a question without an answer, beyond “probably a lot.” That sounds reductive, but it’s a big deal. Remember, we are talking about swaps rather than outright picks. You seldom get a ton for what amounts to a distant concept. The Blazers, in all likelihood, could get high-end flat-out firsts, plural, and maybe some young players—just for giving up swap rights that, when all’s said and done, they may not even use.
Should the Blazers enter the Giannis sweepstakes themselves?
Granted, there is risk involved when facilitating a Giannis trade. Blazers general manager Joe Cronin prioritized those swaps precisely for this exact situation—a scenario in which the Bucks trade Antetokounmpo, get much worse, and then Portland possibly winds up holding a golden ticket, if not three.
At the same time, there is risk in pearl-clutching these swaps, too. If the Bucks do not have any of their own picks coming down the pipeline, they are less likely to move Giannis at all. Failing that, they may end up prioritizing packages for him that keep them somewhat relevant, severely dampening the appeal of the Blazers' swaps.
This isn't meant to imply Portland should look to facilitate any Giannis-to-somewhere-else deal. It shouldn't. It should be opportunistic, peddling any combination of those swaps in exchange for an over-the-top return, whatever that looks like it.
Conversely, though, the Blazers could also look at getting involved in the Giannis sweepstakes themselves. Those Bucks swaps are worth more to Milwaukee than any other team, and while the first one is still two drafts away, Portland has a nice blend of veterans and prospects who provide immediate on-court value, as well as in-house upside.
The Blazers' best possible package gets even more enticing depending on where they land in this year's draft lottery. Put that on the table, and it may allow them to withhold certain youngsters from discussions, most notably Shaedon Sharpe.
Should Portland be looking to fast-track its window after a pleasantly surprising 36-win campaign? Not just for anyone. But Giannis isn't just anyone. If he's open to staying put—he has two years left on his deal, with a 2027-28 player option—it's at least worth a discussion.
And if the Blazers front office determines hitting the gas isn't the right move, that's fine, too. They can still capitalize on Giannis' ambiguous future on the Bucks in a big way.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.