The Portland Trail Blazers need Scoot Henderson to develop into his 2023 draft classmate, Cason Wallace.
Maybe not quite to that extent, but in terms of being that point guard who plays more off-ball, strengthening the Oklahoma City Thunder's playstyle by having another ball-handler, floor spacer, and, most importantly, defender out there.
Wallace is unfortunately injured this year, recently undergoing left shoulder surgery and is set to be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season. But through his first three seasons, we already saw how valuable Wallace was to OKC's contender formula.
Apparently, general manager Sam Presti did too, signing Wallace to a lucrative five-year, $139 million rookie-scale extension before the season. That's a lot to pay for someone who hasn't averaged more than 9 points and 3 assists a season, especially for a team that will eventually be cap-strapped with the talent it has to retain.
But Presti knew Wallace's importance, prioritizing him over other skilled bench players such as Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, the latter of whom is currently thriving with the Atlanta Hawks.
Wallace could benefit from a change of scenery as well when it comes to increased production. He's more than capable of being a starting point guard in this league. But to build that contender, the Thunder need scalable role players like Wallace. Between him and Alex Caruso, they have two of the best in the business at guards who can impact winning without the ball in their hands.
Scoot Henderson needs to step up in a Cason Wallace-like role for Blazers
The Thunder paid Wallace all this money for a reason, while the Blazers ultimately decided not to reach a rookie-scale extension with Henderson before the season.
That said, we've seen Henderson's role diminish into an off-ball guard, similar to what Wallace is for the Thunder. Even lately, when head coach Micah Nori has placed him into the starting lineup following the Ja Morant injury, Henderson has largely been an afterthought in this offense.
He's currently averaging 8.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 22 minutes per game -- all career lows. On the surface, that's horrible timing for Henderson, who is looking to get paid in restricted free agency next summer. But the Blazers know that to reach the ceiling of Western Conference juggernauts like the Thunder, they need players like Henderson to buy into this reduced role.
They weren't going to contend with him as a primary offensive initiator alongside Deni Avdija, especially with Henderson's playmaking and ability to create space still leaving much to be desired in Year 4. That's why general manager Joe Cronin decided to bring in even more firepower in the backcourt, trading for Ja Morant to pair with Damian Lillard's return.
The injuries to Shaedon Sharpe and now Morant give Henderson a chance to prove he can fit into this new-look roster. Lower stats are to be expected in this reduced role, but what matters most for Portland is whether Henderson can buy into that Wallace-like role.
You can see similarities this season between the Blazers and the Thunder in terms of how Cronin has constructed this roster over the summer, and so far it's working, with Portland off to a red-hot 5-1 start. But Henderson quietly remains a part of that vision, giving Nori more defense and another capable ball-handler and decision-maker out there.
The one thing not working for Henderson in this Wallace formula at the start of the season is his shooting. Not only is he getting fewer looks, but he's also surprisingly been less efficient, shooting just 34.0 percent from the field and 18.5 percent from three to start the season.
Portland has no choice but to ride out this shooting slump with injuries already piling up. Henderson has been trending in the right direction as a shooter since entering the league, becoming roughly league average around 35 percent the past two seasons. With Morant out for basically all of November, this would be an ideal time for Henderson to come out of that slump.
Portland may have passed on an extension, but Cronin still referred to him as a "high-priority" player over the offseason. Cronin did add that some of the difficulty when it comes to navigating a Henderson deal is the volatility of his play. If he can be a steady guard option and improve his shooting, there's actually still a fit for him long-term despite Portland's suddenly crowded backcourt.
That is, if you redefine expectations of him as a former No. 3 overall pick and view him more in that Cason Wallace role. As Wallace's championship with the Thunder has already proven, that's still a crucial role to have on a contender. Hopefully, Henderson can continue his development and become that piece for Portland.
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