As the No. 3 overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft, Scoot Henderson is the one player the Portland Trail Blazers have invested the most in throughout their rebuilding process. Although he's far from the bust many prematurely declared him to be, it's also apparent that Henderson shouldn't have been Portland's selection. The better option was Amen Thompson, the prospect selected right after Henderson by the Houston Rockets.
Thompson should be the No. 2 overall pick in a redraft behind only Victor Wembanyama. Meanwhile, Henderson is a much trickier evaluation. It's way too early to determine his career trajectory, especially since the guard position typically takes the longest to adjust to at the next level.
That said, the uncertainty surrounding Henderson is taking a bigger toll on the Blazers' rebuild than many realize.
Scoot Henderson's uncertainty is derailing Blazers' rebuild
Henderson followed up an underwhelming rookie campaign with a dip in key categories, averaging 12.7 points, 5.1 assists, and 3.0 rebounds per game. But he was also more impactful, limiting turnovers (2.7) and improving his efficiency (42/35/77 shooting splits). Scoot has shown enough to shed the bust label, but it remains to be seen whether he's the Blazers' long-term answer at starting point guard.
Portland's other first-round selection that year, Kris Murray, was another regretful decision as he's shot just 25.1 percent from deep in his first two seasons. However, the ramifications of missing on the No. 3 overall pick are far more significant than missing on the No. 23 overall pick, especially when considering the opportunity cost of Thompson being selected immediately after.
Henderson was the catalyst behind Portland's full-on rebuild. General manager Joe Cronin had to decide whether to use Portland's No. 3 pick as a trade chip to get Damian Lillard immediate help or keep the pick and risk Lillard becoming disgruntled enough to finally request a trade. Not only did Cronin keep the pick, but he also drafted Lillard's successor in Henderson.
Yet, two years later, the Blazers still don't fully know what they have in Henderson. He's shown flashes of his All-Star ceiling, including a 39-point performance against the Brooklyn Nets, but those instances have been few and far between up until this point.
Henderson's inconsistency has put the Blazers in a catch-22 situation. Chauncey Billups has an "earned, not given" approach when it comes to the starting lineup, and Henderson hasn't shown enough to warrant starting, especially with Jrue Holiday now in the picture. But at the same time, the best way to help Henderson reach that point is to give him an increased role and live with the inevitable growing pains.
The biggest problem in Portland's rebuild is its attempt to accelerate the timeline with win-now moves like the Holiday trade to end a four-year playoff drought. They are moving too fast and risk a limited playoff ceiling with their lack of star power, which could result in purgatory.
That star power was supposed to be Henderson, the one with the highest draft pedigree. But that hasn't been the case, and as a result, it's derailing Portland's rebuild.