ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony recently mentioned that there's a top eight tier of prospects forming in the 2025 NBA Draft:
- Cooper Flagg
- Dylan Harper
- Ace Bailey
- V. J. Edgecombe
- Tre Johnson
- Jeremiah Fears
- Kon Knueppel
- Khaman Maluach
Plenty can change between now and June 25th; surprising picks are inevitable, such as the Detroit Pistons going with Ron Holland at No. 5 in last year's draft. But for the sake of deeming a prospect a realistic draft option for the Portland Trail Blazers at No. 11, we will rule these eight players out.
While it's disappointing that Portland will likely miss out on that pool of players, there are still several exciting prospects remaining. J.J. Redick, Allan Houston, Robert Horry, Klay Thompson, and Reggie Miller were all former No. 11 picks who carved out successful NBA careers. Even the most recent selection, Matas Buzelis, would be going much higher in a re-draft.
The Trail Blazers need to find this year's gem, and there's a good chance it's one of the following players:
5. Derik Queen, Maryland
There's no denying that Derik Queen's poor combine measurements were concerning. But Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world, while Luka Doncic isn't far behind him. Oftentimes, we overanalyze a prospect's frame and athleticism, undervaluing how skilled of an actual basketball player someone is (AKA pulling a Nico Harrison).
Queen is one of the most intriguing offensive players in the class, with elite footwork, underappreciated passing, and rare ballhandling for a big. If the Trail Blazers go with the best player available, Queen may be the move. They have a crowded center rotation, but Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III shouldn't be considered long-term pieces.
The one hesitation in going with Queen is what his role would look like on a contending team. He has a bit of Alperen Sengun or Domantas Sabonis in him -- not an effective enough floor spacer to play the four but not a defensive anchor to form an elite defense around at the five.
Still, building around Clingan and Queen would provide a yin and yang contrast with a rim protector and offensive post presence. And if one big improves their shooting, they could even play alongside each other.
4. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina
Collin Murray-Boyles is a polarizing prospect. Typically, tweeners who are poor floor spacers are a recipe for disaster in the NBA. Still, the pros outweigh the cons with CMB. Givony notes that the analytics support what the eye test shows -- he's an impactful two-way player due to his defensive versatility, elite finishing, physicality, and high basketball IQ reads.
Draymond Green is arguably the most influential defender of our generation, but in this case, the comparisons are legit. CMB could potentially guard positions one through five, making him one of the best defenders in the draft class. His underrated playmaking also makes him a hub to run the offense through, similar to how Green does with the Warriors.
The one concern and reason CMB isn't higher on our ranking is that Portland is far from being like Golden State in that they were in the bottom five in three-point shooting the past two seasons. Murray-Boyles shot just 26.5 percent from three in his sophomore season. Unless Donovan Clingan makes significant strides, that frontcourt pairing will shrink the floor for a team with players like Deni Avdija and Scoot Henderson, who need space to attack downhill.
3. Egor Demin, BYU
Unless you are drafting Cooper Flagg, there's no such thing as a perfect prospect with zero flaws in their game, especially at No. 11. For Egor Demin, it's his shooting and ability to create separation as the two red flags that will define whether or not he reaches his ceiling. But that ceiling is incredibly high as a 6-foot-8 guard.
To become a star in the NBA, you must possess rare traits that only a few players have. Demin is the tallest guard ever measured at the combine, and you can't teach height. That's going to be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.
If you put a forward on him, Demin's separation problem becomes less of an issue. If he's matched up with a traditional guard, Demin can look over the defense and take full advantage of his passing, which stands out as the best in this draft class.
The Trail Blazers love versatility, and there are some striking similarities between Demin and Deni Avdija -- a player Givony mentions that Demin studies, along with Franz Wagner and Cade Cunningham. But does Portland need another Avdija?
At some point, they need to wonder who these playmakers are passing to. If they can surround Demin and Avdija with more shooting -- or Demin can become a reliable three-point shooter himself -- that would be a tough team to gameplan against. That's a big if, but it's a gamble that could be worth taking at No. 11.
2. Noa Essengue, Ratiopharm Ulm
Between having to deal with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama in the Western Conference for the next decade, the Trail Blazers will need even more lengthy defenders. But there's much more to Noa Essengue's game than his frame that makes him worthy of a lottery pick.
He's already an impactful role player at a professional level, giving him a higher floor than some may perceive. At worst, he'll be a versatile defender, a threat in transition, and make a career out of living at the charity stripe. Still, the tantalizing upside makes Essengue stand out from the other prospects that could be available at No. 11.
As the second youngest prospect in the draft, Essengue oozes potential if he can improve his shot creation and/or three-point shooting. International players tend to skyrocket up draft boards after the NCAA season concludes, and Essengue is no exception, ranking No. 9 on Givony's big board. But the hype is justified, and so would the pick be if Portland goes this route.
1. Kasparas Jakučionis, Illinois
A 6-foot-5 guard with a lethal stepback jumper? Sign us up. Of course, this is under the assumption that Anfernee Simons will eventually be on his way out of Portland, as bringing Jakučionis into the equation would only further complicate an already messy backcourt if that wasn't the case.
At Illinois, Jakučionis averaged 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 44/32/85 shooting splits. The eye test and free throw percentage suggest that he'll also be a much better shooter at the next level. Shooting is a premium in today's NBA, and Jakučionis is the only reliable floor spacer out of the bunch, giving him the nod as Portland's best realistic draft option.
He possesses the best combination of floor and ceiling while filling both positional and overall roster needs with his shooting and playmaking. Outside of turnovers (3.7 per game) and his average athleticism, it's hard to poke holes in Jakučionis' well-rounded game. In a backup role, Portland can afford to be patient with his turnover issue, while his frame and overall talent should compensate for any concerns surrounding his athleticism.
Let's hope he's still available when Rip City is on the clock.