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What percentage of teams that win Game 1 of NBA Finals go on to win the series?

Of the 77 previous NBA Finals, what percent of teams that win Game 1 emerge as the series winner?

By Reese Kunz

Jun 6, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) watches a shot by the Dallas Mavericks during the fourth quarter of game one of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 6, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) watches a shot by the Dallas Mavericks during the fourth quarter of game one of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports / Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
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The 2024 NBA Finals are officially underway after the Boston Celtics defeated the Dallas Mavericks in convincing fashion, 107-89. Boston's formula prevailed, which they've been using all season to finish with the best record in the NBA; their lockdown defense and efficient three-point shooting led the way in Game 1.

The Celtics connected on 38.1 percent of their three-point attempts, while the Mavericks shot only 25.9 percent from three. Despite Luka Doncic's 30 points and ten rebound effort, the three-point disparity was too much for Dallas to overcome. Kristaps Porzingis didn't show any rust after returning from injury, scoring 20 points in only 21 minutes.

Although Game 2 is also at TD Garden in Boston, the next game isn't until Sunday, June 9, at 8:00 p.m. ET, which will also be on ABC. Teams will get a relatively long rest in between games for the remainder of the series.

The significance of Game 1 in the NBA Finals

Game 1 in the NBA Finals has a significant historical precedent. Out of the 77 previous NBA Finals, the team that won Game 1 has emerged as the series winner 70.1 percent of the time. The last team to lose Game 1 of the NBA Finals and go on to win the series was the Golden State Warriors in 2022, which was also against the Boston Celtics. 

Going off the percentages, Game 1 seemed more like a must-win for the Mavericks than the Celtics. Ten of the last 19 home teams to lose Game 1 in the NBA Finals have still gone on to win. However, if the winner of Game 1 is the home team, they've gone on to win the series 78 percent of the time.

Considering various factors - the historical Game 1 Finals percentages, Boston's dominance throughout the season, Porzingis' impactful return, and the Celtics' convincing 20-point win in Game 1 - it seems daunting for the Mavericks to overcome. However, Dallas is no stranger to being the underdog and has shown resilience in this year's playoffs. They also have the series' best player in Doncic, which is always a significant advantage. As the saying goes, 'The series doesn't start until a team loses at home.'

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