Predicting when the Portland Trail Blazers will return to the playoffs

The Portland Trail Blazers enjoyed continued playoff success during the Damian Lillard era. Since being drafted No. 6 overall in the 2012 NBA Draft, Lillard made nine playoff appearances, eight of which were with the Blazers. Portland last reached the playoffs in the 2020-21 season, when they were eliminated by the Denver Nuggets in the first round. However, with Lillard departing last offseason, it will likely be several years before the rebuilding Blazers return to the playoffs.

Western Conference landscape makes playoff return difficult for Blazers

With a plethora of young talent, they are actively trying to lose in the 2024-25 NBA season to improve their lottery odds in hopes of landing a top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Combine that with the competitive Western Conference, which features multiple superstars, and it's hard to see the Blazers returning to the playoffs anytime soon.

The good news for Portland regarding their future playoff chances is that future Hall of Famers like LeBron James and Kevin Durant are nearing the end of their careers and should be out of the league by the time the Blazers' young core enters their prime together. Still, many Western Conference teams already have a clear-cut star to be the focal point of their rebuilding process, like San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama or Minnesota's Anthony Edwards, to name a few.

When could Portland return to the playoffs?

The Blazers have multiple players who are 25 years or younger and should be considered long-term pieces in their rebuild. Still, it remains to be seen whether one or multiple of these players can eventually develop into All-Star-level players. Because of that, it could be difficult for the Blazers to return to the playoffs in the next couple of years, even if they land someone like Duke's Cooper Flagg in the 2025 NBA Draft.

The best guess for when Portland makes the playoffs is likely to be in four or five years, when the majority of their up-and-coming core players, such as Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan, as well as whoever they select in 2025, all reach their prime together (assuming they can financially keep everyone mentioned around). At that point, Portland will also be actively trying to win games and can add in veteran pieces to accelerate their rebuild.

Prediction: Blazers return to the playoffs in 2028-29