Predicting Donovan Clingan’s career ceiling and floor player comparisons

Predicting Donovan Clingan's ceiling

Clingan's ceiling: A better rebounding Brook Lopez

Clingan has a long way to go before becoming the level of player of Brook Lopez. In his career, Lopez has averaged 16.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.9 blocks per game on 50/35/80 shooting splits. He's also an NBA champion, All-Star, and two-time All-Defensive Team member.

They already have similar frames; Lopez is listed at 7-foot-1 and 282 pounds, while Clingan is 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds. Similarly to Lopez, Clingan will immediately impact winning on the defensive side of the ball with his rim protection, as evidenced by his impressive Summer League, in which he averaged 4.2 blocks per game, surpassing the previous record set by Victor Wembanyama.

Once he reaches his prime, Clingan could very well have a similar defensive impact as Lopez and some All-Defensive Team awards could be in his future. One area where Clingan will be more impactful than Lopez is rebounding, as Lopez uncharacteristically is a below-average rebounder for his position, especially given his size. Clingan is more physical and willing to crash the glass and could see north of ten rebounds a game once he sees enough minutes.

While Clingan has Lopez beat in rebounding, he's much more raw offensively. The biggest question mark surrounding whether or not Clingan can reach his ceiling will be his offensive limitations. Currently, he's an athletic rim runner who can be utilized as a lob threat in fast break and pick and rolls in half-court sets. Similarly to Lopez, Clingan has a high basketball IQ and can be relied on to make the right reads as a passer. Where he must improve to reach his upside is shooting.

Clingan must improve his shooting

Lopez was a huge part of the Bucks' championship run in 2021, and a huge reason why was his ability to pull Deandre Ayton away from the paint defensively due to his threat as a three-point shooter; this allowed Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo much less congested driving lanes to utilize his length and athleticism.

The "final boss" stage of Clingan's progression will be as a three-point shooter who can help spread out the Blazers' offense and allow room for Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to drive, which is where they are at their best. Clingan has shown confidence and willingness to work on that aspect of his game, but it still feels like it is a few years away from being implemented consistently. He only attempted nine total three-pointers in his two seasons at UConn, connecting on two.

Something to consider that is promising for Clingan's development is that Lopez wasn't known as a three-point shooter when he entered the league, either. At the beginning of his career, Lopez was known as more of a traditional back-to-the-back big man and has done an underappreciated job of evolving his game to fit the modern NBA style of play.

In his first eight seasons with the Nets, Lopez only attempted 31 threes total. It wasn't until his ninth year in the NBA, at age 28, that Lopez introduced the three-pointer as a significant part of his game, attempting 387 threes on 35 percent.

The Blazers already have their long-term starting center in Clingan due to his defense and interior presence alone. But if he can follow a career arc similar to Lopez's, the Blazers may have drafted a future All-Star this summer.