It's seemingly inevitable that the Portland Trail Blazers will be active this offseason. Barring a move, the Blazers are projected to be in the luxury tax and first apron. Malcolm Brogdon is a likely trade candidate, but general manager Joe Cronin has multiple other options to consider.
The following teams have made questionable acquisitions at some point throughout their respective rebuilding processes. The Blazers must learn from these mistakes and have a clear sense of direction as they consider how their offseason moves impact their future.
Team No. 1: Houston Rockets
Moves Houston made: Signing Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet
The 2019 Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook trade is indirectly tied to the Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet signings. As a result of that trade, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the Rockets’ first-round pick this year, which turned out to be No. 12 overall. The Rockets were more incentivized to accelerate their rebuild and sign Brooks and VanVleet to massive contracts because they didn’t have their pick this year, meaning they had no reason to have a bad season.
To the Rockets’ credit, they have the No. 3 pick from the Brooklyn Nets due to the 2021 James Harden trade (which seems much longer ago due to how much the NBA landscape has changed since then).
However, the critisicm is more about how they accelerated their rebuild after the superstars left.
While it makes sense to try and compete for a playoff spot in a year where they didn’t have their pick, they sacrificed their rebuilding upside by signing VanVleet and Brooks to respective three and four-year deals. This season, it doesn’t seem significant because they have the Nets’ No. 3 overall pick. Still, in the coming years, the Rockets are not good enough to contend but not bad enough to get a better chance at a top pick.
What this means for Portland: Don’t accelerate the rebuild too soon.
This differs from the Rockets’ route to accelerating their rebuild, but the same premise. Houston signed veterans to massive contracts to help them win. The Blazers are taking more of an internal approach, hoping they already have enough on their roster to make a significant jump next season. They should be better next season, largely because they will be healthier, but also with the development of Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.
In the Blazers context, Jerami Grant is their version of VanVleet and Brooks. Grant signed a massive five-year, $160 million deal last offseason. He's arguably Portland's best player and may help them finish close to a .500 record next season, but he isn't a "needle mover."
The Blazers must avoid this .500 record scenario entirely and move on from Grant, giving them a better draft spot in the coming seasons and more financial flexibility. That way, the Blazers can add another player to their roster when the time is right to try to contend.