An NBA expansion draft looks more likely than ever, with the league set to vote on expanding to Seattle and Las Vegas. In all likelihood, that vote will pass, meaning the current 30 teams could soon be forced to decide which eight players they want to protect from the draft.
The Portland Trail Blazers are in a unique spot, with a mix of youth and veterans. They are taking a patient, long-term approach with the gradual development of their young core. But they are also trying to balance the closing windows of the aging stars they brought in this past offseason, with Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday both 35.
Who should the Blazers protect in an expansion draft?
The Blazers would and should protect the majority of their young core, with the "locks" in this scenario being: Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, and Yang Hansen. The first three have already proven they should be considered building blocks, while the remaining three have too much tantalizing upside to give up on this early in their respective careers.
Of course, the Blazers wouldn't be complete without arguably the greatest franchise player of all time, Damian Lillard. Keeping him around, especially given his team-friendly contract and Portland's roster needs in the shooting and playmaking departments, makes sense.
That would leave one remaining spot, with multiple players making compelling cases to stick around in Rip City.
Our pick? Vit Krejci.
He hasn't shot the ball well since coming over to Portland, but his sample size as a shooter who has hovered around 40% from three the past three seasons gives us confidence he'll eventually regress to the mean. Sidy Cissoko or Kris Murray fit the defensive identity better, but shooting needs to be made a priority.
Expansion draft could save Portland from Grant and Holiday contracts
The other route Portland could take would be keeping a veteran such as Jerami Grant or Jrue Holiday, both of whom would fit the win-now timeline with Lillard's return. However, there's too much unnecessary risk attached to both veterans to justify keeping them around.
Grant is just one year removed from being considered one of the worst assets in the league, given his massive $160 million contract and lack of impact as a one-dimensional player overly reliant on scoring.
Holiday had a down season of his own in Boston. And although he's looking reenergized this season with the Blazers, things could quickly go south given his combination of age, injury history, and contract.
There's a world in which one, if not both, of these players is considered a negative asset in the future. They are only getting older and more expensive, with both having player options in 2027-28 worth north of $36 million.
It would be one thing for Portland to overpay these veterans as a premium to contend. But they aren't at that point in their timeline, making the case for letting them go even stronger.
Despite their relative bounce-back years, the Blazers would be better off prioritizing their young core, with the only exception being Lillard. Grant has become a favorite of general manager Joe Cronin's, and that's why this expansion draft could save the Blazers from themselves.
Portland's long-term outlook and ceiling of their rebuild is better off without their expensive veterans, even though their front office may not agree. At this point, forcing their hand with an expansion draft could be the only thing to get them out of that mess.