The Portland Trail Blazers finished the 2024-25 season with a 36-46 record. It was a unique situation in that a 36-win team decided to extend both their general manager and head coach because of their impressive play, but that's life in Portland these days.
They'll look to carry that momentum into the 2025-26 season, potentially even battling for a playoff spot, depending on what moves they make this summer. One of the most important offseason decisions fans have been looking forward to before the season even began is the 2025 NBA Draft.
The Blazers tied with the Phoenix Suns for the ninth-worst record. As a result, the teams will split the No. 9 and No. 10 lottery odds, determined by a coin flip. If Portland wins the toss, they will have a 3.8 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. If they lose, their odds will remain very similar at 3.7 percent. It doesn't significantly alter their chances of picking in the top four, either, at 17.3 percent compared to 16.9 percent.
This means that, more likely than not, the coin flip will decide which team picks at No. 9 and No. 10, with the Suns owing their first-round pick to the Houston Rockets.
2025 Lottery NBA Mock Draft 3.0
For this lottery mock draft, the draft order was based on a lottery simulation on Tankathon. The Blazers wound up at No. 10, while the Brooklyn Nets won the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.
Here's how it played out:
Pick | Team | Player | School | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brooklyn Nets | Cooper Flagg | Duke | F |
2 | New Orleans Pelicans | Dylan Harper | Rutgers | G |
3 | Washington Wizards | V.J. Edgecombe | Baylor | G |
4 | Charlotte Hornets | Ace Bailey | Rutgers | F |
5 | Utah Jazz | Tre Johnson | Texas | G |
6 | Philadelphia 76ers | Kon Knueppel | Duke | G |
7 | Toronto Raptors | Derik Queen | Maryland | C |
8 | San Antonio Spurs | Kasparas Jakucionis | Illinois | G |
9 | Houston Rockets (via PHX) | Khaman Maluach | Duke | C |
10 | Portland Trail Blazers | Noa Essengue | Ratiopharm Ulm | F |
11 | Miami Heat | Jeremiah Fears | Oklahoma | G |
12 | Dallas Mavericks | Liam McNeeley | UConn | G/F |
13 | Chicago Bulls | Asa Newell | Georgia | F/C |
14 | Atlanta Hawks (via SAC) | Jase Richardson | Michigan State | G |
Noa Essengue would be a risky lottery pick for Portland
Noa Essengue would be a high-risk, high-reward type selection if the Blazers were to take him towards the end of the lottery.
ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony ranked Essengue as the No. 4 international prospect in the class behind Nolan Traore, Hugo Gonzalez, and Ben Saraf (Essengue's teammate on Ratiopharm Ulm -- another potential steal the Blazers should consider).
"Essengue has had no shortage of highlights, showcasing his mobility and explosiveness as well as his ability to draw fouls in bunches, and as a passer, cutter, and defensive playmaker with notable improvement as a shooter," wrote Givony.
He also gave Essengue a projected draft range of 10-25, meaning it may be viewed as a slight reach if Portland were to pick him this early. The wide range of draft outcomes also highlights that he's a challenging prospect to get a read on in terms of how his game will translate to the next level.
The Blazers are still years away from being legitimate contenders and can afford to patiently develop any prospect they select. But it's also important to differentiate between untapped potential and a player that never pans out. At some point, you have to be concerned about how raw a player is, such as the Charlotte Hornets' No. 6 overall selection of Tidjane Salaun last summer.
If you are playing the long game, you must be certain that the prospect is worth investing in. That's easier said than done, as Essengue is 18 years old, but he checks several boxes for what Portland is looking to add this offseason. He's a versatile defender at 6-foot-8, which would give the Blazers more rotational flexibility and much-needed depth behind Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara.
He's not a risky pick in the sense that his defense, energy, and rebounding are all good enough to carve out a long-term role in the NBA. It has more to do with the fact that Essengue doesn't appear to have that high of a ceiling as someone who can develop into a go-to player, which is the main reason why he may fall out of the lottery.
The Blazers desperately need more star power -- do they want to overlook that need by adding someone who could be an elite role player, such as Essengue? Portland is officially committed to their lengthy, defensive identity after extending both Joe Cronin and Chauncey Billups. Essengue would be a great addition to that. But they'll have to weigh the opportunity cost of missing out on someone more likely to become a star.