The Portland Trail Blazers aren't quite free from the Neil Olshey era. Thanks to the Larry Nance Jr. trade in 2021 that never panned out, they still owe the Chicago Bulls a lottery-protected first-round pick. That pick has suddenly become increasingly likely to convey this summer.
Portland is currently 10th in the Western Conference with a 30-33 record, but just two games back of the eighth-seeded Golden State Warriors, who remain without superstar Stephen Curry. Additionally, the ninth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers got worse at the trade deadline, swapping James Harden for Darius Garland and shipping Ivica Zubac to Indiana.
With how many teams are "tanking" this season, the tier of realistic playoff teams ends with Portland, meaning they don't have to worry about the Memphis Grizzlies or Dallas Mavericks leapfrogging them in the standings. The Blazers have a legitimate chance at ending a four-year playoff drought, especially if they can sneak into that eight-seed and give themselves two shots at securing a spot in the postseason via the play-in tournament.
Larry Nance Jr. trade could come back to bite Portland at the worst time
It would be exciting in the short term, and the playoff experience would be beneficial for a young Blazers team that has yet to be battle-tested. But when you zoom out, it would be unfortunate timing and arguably not in their best interest going forward.
Portland has made this playoff push on the back of veterans such as Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant. Their young core isn't really the one making the leap, so they still need to keep adding to it. This would be a prime opportunity to do so, given the projected strength of the 2026 class.
In the big picture, it wouldn't be the worst thing if the Blazers are on the clock this offseason. They'd likely have to convey their first-round pick the following year, as it remains lottery-protected through 2028. At that point, it would turn into a second-rounder, but there's reason to believe the Blazers are playoff-bound next season -- at the latest -- with the anticipated return of Damian Lillard.
Surrendering that pick next season could be the ideal outcome. They don't want to give it up in 2028, as they wouldn't be able to execute the first-round swap they have with Milwaukee from the Lillard trade. They should also want to keep their pick in this year's draft, which is loaded well beyond headliners Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer.
Veterans leading the way to the postseason, only to get a short series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, with no first-round pick to show for it, seems like the worst possible outcome for Portland's long-term outlook. That's how teams end up in purgatory, and the Blazers are at risk because of the Nance trade that's still haunting them years later.