Zena Keita, Es Baraheni, and Andrew Schlecht recently predicted the NBA teams that would outperform their over/under win total projections on The Athletic NBA Daily, one of which was the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland is currently projected for a slight decrease in wins compared to last year's 36-46 team, at 33.5 games.
"33.5 feels disrespectful to a team that kind of figured things out last year," Baraheni said, highlighting the Blazers being a "defensive juggernaut" as a reason for optimism.
"I understand that there will be offensive concerns since they lost Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton. I completely get it. But they will be a defensive juggernaut, in my opinion. They will be one of the best defensive teams in the league. There are going to be puff pieces all over about this Trail Blazers defense in January."
Blazers will exceed expectations thanks to an elite defense
Every team in the top 14 in defense made the playoffs last season. Portland was 16th. There's every reason to believe they will be, at worst, an above-average defense in the league next season.
The Blazers improved their defense towards the end of last season, ranking in the top 10 in 2025. General manager Joe Cronin made two key moves this offseason to sustain that momentum: swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and buying out Deandre Ayton.
In today's NBA, teams are constantly hunting for mismatches. Simons was Portland's weak link in that regard, as he's consistently ranked near or at the bottom of the roster in defensive rating in each of his seven seasons. Now, Portland lands a massive upgrade in Holiday, a six-time All-NBA Defensive Team member.
Baraheni notes that 35-year-old Holiday may not be the superstar defender he once was. However, he's still a "very good point of attack defender," which will significantly help Portland jump into that elite tier of defenses.
Portland's other move was more of an addition by subtraction as they moved on from Ayton at the perfect time. They get a chance to evaluate the fit of recent first-round picks Donovan Clingan and Yang Hansen while also getting Clingan in an increased role as their defensive anchor.
Clingan's 109.1 defensive rating was third best on the team last season, only behind Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III. Portland already has four All-Defense players on its roster: Thybulle, Williams, Holiday, and, most recently, Toumani Camara. It wouldn't be surprising if Clingan eventually joins that group as well.
Clingan ranked second in per-36 blocks (3.0), showcasing his rim protection. But perhaps more importantly, he also held opponents to a 50.8 percent field goal percentage at the rim, putting him in the company of Victor Wembanyama and peak Rudy Gobert.
The concerns about whether or not Portland has enough in terms of star power and overall offense to make the play-in in the loaded Western Conference are valid. But their defense is somehow still being overlooked. Thanks to their center rotation and versatile wings, Portland was already trending towards becoming a top-10 defense regardless of these offseason moves. But that trajectory accelerated this summer with their surprising, yet calculated moves to bolster that defensive identity.
And it could result in yet another season that exceeds expectations, even out west.