The Portland Trail Blazers recently reached a four-year, $90 million extension with up-and-coming guard Shaedon Sharpe. In the end, Joe Cronin and Portland's front office decided to bet on Sharpe's upside, investing in him with a long-term deal.
Because of that star potential, this deal seems like a great value for the Blazers. It's also perfect timing. Portland got ahead of Sharpe's looming breakout season and proactively avoided a messy situation that typically comes along with restricted free agency.
That said, this extension decision certainly doesn't come without risks attached. On the Game Theory Podcast, Sam Vecenie of The Athletic mentioned that there is both upside and downside for Portland. He still feels good about it in the scheme of things, but at the same time, it's an overpay from what Sharpe showed last season.
"I do think there is some downside," Vecenie said. "If Shaedon ends up being more of what he's been the last couple of years, he's probably overpaid by $5 or $6 million a year -- something like that. But if he shows slight improvements, he's probably worth this contract."
Shaedon Sharpe must improve to justify this extension
Last season, Sharpe averaged 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on 45/31/79 shooting splits. While those numbers and his age (22) suggest anything less than $100 million is a steal, we do need to slightly pump the brakes, as there are still key aspects of his game he must improve in order to justify that extension.
The two glaring flaws are Sharpe's defense and three-point shooting.
One-dimensional score-first guards aren't really made a priority on the market in today's NBA. Look at Cam Thomas in Brooklyn. He averaged 24 points last season, yet accepted a one-year, $6 million qualifying offer this summer to bet on himself because he wasn't receiving what he thought he should be worth in restricted free agency.
The encouraging aspect for Portland is that Sharpe has already shown signs of becoming a more complete player, receiving praise from Chauncey Billups and teammates throughout training camp. Unlike Thomas, Sharpe does have the physical tools to become a much better defender, given his elite athleticism and positional size at 6-foot-5. If he can figure out how to impact winning beyond scoring, this extension will easily return value for the Blazers.
"Based on what we've seen in the preseason, I think there's real reason to believe he might be a $30-35 [million] a year guy. There's still real margin for error across the board with Sharpe, which is why I don't mind him feeling like locking in at $90 million for four years," Vecenie added.
Sharpe is still incredibly young and will have an opportunity to hit the market just as he starts to enter his prime. With the way the salary cap has been increasing and how Sharpe has looked this offseason, something tells us his next contract will be substantially higher. There's even a chance we look back on this deal and wonder how the Blazers managed to retain their best player for so cheap.
Because of Sharpe's star upside, it's more than worth Portland taking on any of the risk associated with this extension. That's the entire point of an extension: weighing what that player has done with what you project he can become.
For Portland, the idea of what Sharpe can become was too compelling to pass up.