Many analysts criticized the Deni Avdija trade because they believed that a rebuilding Portland Trail Blazers team needed to remain bad in order to improve their draft lottery odds. But in reality, Portland traded a No. 14 overall pick and another way down the road to land an All-Star-level talent who is a perfect fit for their rebuilding timeline and on arguably the best contract in the entire association.
Portland's lopsided Avdija deal goes to show that rebuilding trajectories aren't as black and white as many make them out to be. If the right deal comes along, it's worth sacrificing draft capital and worsening your draft position for, even as a rebuilding team with no immediate playoff expectations.
Sam Vecenie recently discussed that approach with Jason Timpf on the Game Theory Podcast, noting Avdija's star ascension justifies the once-polarizing trade.
"Imagine where Portland would be right now if they didn't make that move on Deni," Vecenie said. "They'd be a catastrophe without him. Now, they're pretty competent."
The Blazers would be a 'catastrophe' without Deni Avdija
Deni's star ascension has been the bright spot in the Blazers' 9-15 start to the season. There's always going to be the opportunity cost of adding him to the roster, increasing Portland's floor too much to tank. But even if the Blazers had the worst record in the league, they'd still have a 48% of landing the No. 5 overall pick. They'd have to hit in both the lottery and the actual selection, both of which are far from guarantees.
And as Vecenie notes, there's also value in building up that floor to have organizational structure and create a winning culture for both players and fans.
"A) There is such organizational value in not tanking and not getting that culture of losing around the players that you want to build with. B) From a fanbase perspective, let's be responsible and make moves that at least allow our fans to have some sort of a competitive team out there."
One thing hindering Portland's rebuild is that they haven't necessarily nailed their draft picks. Scoot Henderson isn't a bust by any means, but remains a question mark of untapped potential, one that Portland was hoping to gain more clarity on this season before his untimely hamstring injury. Shaedon Sharpe has shown signs of improvement, particularly on the defensive end, but he will never be a star unless he can become a more reliable shooter. Donovan Clingan is a serviceable starter but has a limited ceiling due to a lack of an offensive arsenal. These picks were a good foundation, but they weren't quite enough to build off of, especially given how high the bar is to compete in the Western Conference.
This trade saved Portland's rebuild. Avdija is single-handedly changing their trajectory by providing the missing star power that most young teams typically find in the draft. Thanks to Avdija, Portland is right in the mix with the other up-and-coming teams out west.