Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe recently highlighted six shocking NBA players on The Bill Simmons Podcast, one of whom was Portland Trail Blazers rising star Deni Avdija.
Simmons mentions that he has Avdija ranked as the 22nd best player in the league, but perhaps most importantly, believes he can be the best player on a winning team. Lowe had him in the 30s, noting that he ranked some more established veterans ahead of Avdija. Either way, we've already come quite a long way.
Deni Avdija has ascended to top-25 status
Various outlets didn't even have Avdija ranked inside the top 100 in the 2024-25 season. Heading into this season, ESPN had him ranked 66th, Bleacher Report 51st, CBS Sports 76th, and The Ringer 53rd. While Simmons' 22nd ranking is likely higher than consensus, it shows how quickly Avdija has ascended -- and how smart the Blazers were in trading for him before he reached this peak that was higher than many anticipated.
One question regarding Avdija's career trajectory is whether this breakout would've happened had he remained with the Wizards. I lean towards it happening regardless of his landing spot. There were already signs of this potential he showed before the trade, particularly the drastically improved three-point shot, which jumped from 29.7% to 37.4% in his final two seasons with the Wizards.
At the same time, the perfect fit between Avdija's style of play and Portland's roster has likely accelerated that growth and taken his star ceiling to yet another level.
He's embraced a point-forward role in Portland that he didn't quite have before, including a long leash from a team willing to live with his mistakes (turnovers) while he continues to adjust. The fast-paced play the Blazers have emphasized is also contributing to Avdija's career season, as he's one of the best players in the association at capitalizing on transition opportunities with his rare combination of size and speed. Credit needs to be given to both Avdija and the Blazers, as he's clearly worked to refine his game, but they have also recognized his unique talent and put him in a position to succeed by playing to those strengths.
The next step in Avdija's star trajectory will be proving he can maintain this level on a contending team. That's the one aspect separating him from players ranked in the 20s, as everyone ahead of him has a proven track record of sustaining their role on winning teams. With a young core continuing to take steps in the right direction and the anticipated return of Damian Lillard, Avdija could have the chance to prove himself as early as next season.