Deni Avdija was considered the favorite to win Most Improved Player of the Year for the majority of the season. He's now at risk of becoming ineligible to win that, or any award for that matter.
In 2023, the NBA implemented a rule change as part of its new CBA: players must play in at least 65 games to be eligible for end-of-season awards. Avdija has played in 48 games this season, meaning he'll have to appear in 17 of the Blazers' 20 remaining games.
Portland's newest All-Star has dealt with a lingering lower back injury, appearing in just two games since the break. The last time he suited up was Feb. 22, a game against the Phoenix Suns in which he recorded a single minute before his back flared up again.
Blazers desperately need Deni Avdija at full strength
Avdija has since been sidelined for their last four games, and Portland's offense has predictably struggled in his absence. He's currently listed as questionable for Wednesday's contest against the Memphis Grizzlies, but Portland should strongly consider keeping him out until he's truly back to 100%.
Even when he was able to play, Avdija clearly wasn't himself. He's been so consistent for Portland this season, as his well-rounded skill set gives him so many avenues to make an impact that it's virtually impossible for him to have a bad game. That hasn't been the case as of late, most notably in his 11-point performances against the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves, in which he shot below 30% from the field in both blowout losses.
So not only is the injury hurting his chances of eligibility, but most importantly, it's also hurting his production.
Jalen Duren could steal the MIP from Deni Avdija
Even if he does reach the 65-game mark, Avdija's case for MIP isn't as strong as it was over the past few months. That's reflected in the latest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Avdija is tied with Ryan Rollins for third-best odds (+1200), but this now appears to be a two-man race between Jalen Johnson (+250) and Jalen Duren (-145).
Avdija, Johnson, and Duren all made their first All-Star appearance this season, and deservedly so. Duren, in particular, deserves a ton of credit for being the catalyst behind Detroit's rapid success. The Pistons are first in the Eastern Conference with an impressive 45-15 record. That wouldn't have been possible without Duren's ascension, as the 22-year-old big man is averaging a career-high 18.6 points along with 10.8 rebounds per game.
From a pure stats standpoint, Avdija's breakout season is arguably more impressive, with his scoring jumping from 16.9 to 24.4 points per game. Unfortunately, the two breakout stars are trending in opposite directions as we enter this final stretch of the season.
Avdija's MIP award is getting out of reach with each game missed. But at this point, his health matters more than any award. Portland is on track for the play-in tournament, and they'll need their All-Star at full strength to have a realistic chance of coming out of that alive.