The bad news from the Portland Trail Blazers' entertaining season is that they now sit at 28-39. Their half-hearted attempt at a play-in spot by being one of the few teams not to make a trade at the deadline has resulted in one of the worst-case scenarios from a record standpoint.
Despite injuries to Dallas and San Antonio, Portland is still 4.5 games back from the ten-seed, and with just 15 games remaining, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that they won't make the Play-In Tournament.
Conversely, Portland's surprising midseason turnaround has resulted in them having the ninth-worst record in the association. If the season ended today, that would mean they have just a 4.5 percent chance at Cooper Flagg and a 20.2 percent shot of landing in the top four.
In terms of lottery odds, finishing eighth is likely the best possible outcome for Portland with such few games remaining as the Toronto Raptors -- who have the seventh worst record at 24-43 -- are still four games behind the Blazers.
Rip City is in "no man's land" and likely won't end up with either a top pick or a Play-In spot, which is disappointing. However, the silver lining that still makes this season an overall success is the encouraging development of their young core.
Growth of Blazers’ young core provides a silver lining
Although we would have liked Portland to commit more towards a rebuild and a full-on tank this season, it likely wasn't going to boost their chances of landing a top pick significantly. It was poor timing because of the prospects headlining the top of this strong draft class, but Portland's young core has already become too talented to bottom out entirely.
Veteran starters like Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, and, to a lesser extent, Anfernee Simons (who has been playing much better lately) have had down seasons overall. Despite their highest-paid players performing poorly relative to their standards, Portland's young core has been picking up the slack and contributing to their season turnaround.
The Blazers wanted to gain more roster clarity this season, and from that standpoint, they have been successful. A future starting five -- Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan -- is beginning to emerge and should make Blazers fans optimistic about their future.
The trades for Avdija and Camara have elevated Portland's floor as both versatile two-way players are on the verge of breakout seasons, impacting winning at a high level in other aspects beyond just their scoring.
Henderson is finally turning a corner and coming off one of the best performances of his young career in a heartbreaking overtime loss to the New York Knicks, where he recorded 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting.
Portland's other two recent top-ten picks, Sharpe and Clingan, have also shown flashes of what their impact will look like down the road. Sharpe needs to figure things out on the defensive end. However, he remains one of Portland's best All-Star bets due to his offensive impact. He's an underrated playmaker and someone who can consistently become their leading scorer for years to come.
Clingan needs to improve his conditioning to play starter-level minutes throughout the course of a season and remain efficient in that role, which has been apparent while Ayton has been sidelined for the past month. But he's still showing why the Blazers were wise to invest a top-ten pick in the UConn big man and has provided instant impact on the defensive end with his paint presence.
The fact that Portland has gone on this stretch and is even in the conversation for being a Play-In team is substantial progress from last year's 21-win team. Still, there's plenty of work left to be done for GM Joe Cronin. The Blazers still need to clear the path for their young core. It seems like that's the direction this team is headed in, but it will take longer than fans would have hoped.
As is the case with many of the youngest teams in the league, the Blazers have had a rollercoaster season. One month, you are fantasizing about how Flagg would fit in seamlessly alongside their elite players. Next, you're picturing which superstar Camara will lock down in the Play-In Tournament.
The reality is that the Blazers are very likely going to fall somewhere in between these two extremes. And that's okay. This transitional season has still been an overall success as it's laid the foundation for what looks to be an exciting future for the Blazers, with their improved young core leading the way.