The Portland Trail Blazers have moved up just three times in franchise history. Blazers fans hope they were saving lottery luck for Duke phenom Cooper Flagg. We'll find out if that's the case on Monday, May 12, when the lottery takes place at 4 p.m. PDT (7 p.m. ET) on ESPN.
The three instances they moved up were in 1984, 2007, and 2023. In 1984, the Blazers infamously selected Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. In 2007, it was Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. And the latest draft regret was Scoot Henderson at No. 3 over Amen Thompson, a whiff that is catching up to the two others in magnitude as Thompson continues his star ascension.
So, if history is any indication, they'll land the No. 2 pick only to miss out on a star talent by one pick.
The Blazers are long overdue for some lottery luck
Of course, there's a 63.4 percent chance they will stand pat at their No. 10 lottery spot that was determined after losing the tiebreaker coin flip to the Phoenix Suns. The silver lining is that the Suns and Blazers will split their lottery odds nearly evenly, with Phoenix having just one more lottery ball combination out of the 1,000 assigned. Portland has 37 combinations, meaning they have a 3.7 percent shot at the Flagg pipe dream becoming a reality.
The Atlanta Hawks defied the odds by landing Zaccharie Risacher with just a three percent chance last year, but it remains extremely rare for teams with such low odds to win the lottery.
Here are the most unlikely lottery winners in NBA history:
Odds (%) | Lottery Winner | Year | Selection |
|---|---|---|---|
1.52 | Orlando Magic | 1993 | Chris Webber |
1.7 | Chicago Bulls | 2008 | Derrick Rose |
1.7 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2014 | Andrew Wiggins |
2.8 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2011 | Kyrie Irving |
3.0 | Atlanta Hawks | 2024 | Zaccharie Risacher |
If Portland somehow won, it would rank as the sixth most unlikely in NBA history and the most improbable lottery win in franchise history. They've had four No. 1 overall picks in franchise history -- Oden (2007), Mychal Thompson (1978), Bill Walton (1974), and LaRue Martin (1972), with Oden being the only selection since the lottery was introduced in 1985.
In that 2007 lottery, the Blazers finished with the seventh-worst record (32-50) but claimed the top pick with just a 5.30 percent chance. Unfortunately, Oden and Martin were both busts, playing just a combined seven seasons in the league.
Walton was the standout performer from this group, leading the Blazers to their lone title in 1977 as Finals MVP and following it up with league MVP honors in 1978.
If everything goes right for Flagg, he has that kind of upside after a historically productive freshman season at Duke. Portland desperately needs a superstar back in Rip City, and Flagg would instantly elevate them into playoff contention as a player with both immediate impact and untapped potential.
The odds are that this pipe dream won't come to fruition. But crazier things have happened in the NBA -- and the Blazers are long overdue for some lottery luck.