The New Orleans Pelicans currently have the worst record in the association at 10-36. If the season were to end today, that would mean they have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft and a 52.1% chance of landing in the top four.
Only, they no longer have that pick due to front office incompetence. That 14% chance at a franchise-altering prospect like Kansas' Darryn Peterson (or BYU's AJ Dybantsa, if that's your cup of tea) would instead belong to the Atlanta Hawks.
Last summer, New Orleans made a controversial draft-day trade, sending over an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up from No. 23 to No. 13 in the 2025 NBA Draft. While it appears they nailed the Derik Queen selection, that doesn't take away from the fact that this trade was horrible value for the Pelicans.
It also leaves teams picking before No. 13, such as the Portland Trail Blazers at No. 11, wondering why they didn't take this lopsided deal.
What if the Blazers traded back with the Pelicans instead?
It's unclear if this deal was even on the table for anyone other than Atlanta. But why wouldn't the Pelicans be open to offering the same exact package to move up even higher in the draft? They were clearly high enough on Queen to make this bold deal, so one would assume they would want to minimize risk in terms of him being off the table and secure him while they could.
With that logic, there's a world in which Portland missed out on Peterson, Dybantsa, or even Duke's Cameron Boozer to take a gamble on Yang Hansen.
While it remains to be seen if their Hansen pick will pan out, that's a stark difference in value between what is essentially a coin flip at a top-four pick in a strong draft class and someone who was a widely projected second-round prospect.
It's not that black-and-white, and it's unfair to criticize Portland's front office when we don't even know whether this was an offer on the table. It's not like the New Orleans front office has proven to operate logically. Still, the Pelicans' disastrous start has this trade looking worse than ever, even with Queen emerging as a standout rookie in the 2025 class.
From Portland's standpoint, it's also becoming more worrisome with Hansen's struggles early in his career. The silver lining is they still managed to pick up an additional first-round pick (2028 via Orlando) by trading back with the Memphis Grizzlies to land Hansen.
But that projects to be a mid- to late-first-rounder, while the pick the Hawks stole could result in a franchise-altering talent.