The Portland Trail Blazers continue to wait on Scoot Henderson -- to play, to develop, to become the star point guard they thought he would be when they drafted him with the No. 3 pick of the 2023 NBA Draft. In the meantime, the perfect point guard they passed on is breaking out into a star.
When the Blazers drafted Henderson out of the G League Ignite, it was not seen as a reach. He looked like a can't-miss point guard prospect, the next coming of Chris Paul, a smooth scorer and incredible playmaker. While point guards often take the longest of any position to get their NBA footing, his arrival seemed inevitable.
That arrival is yet to come. Henderson was historically bad as a rookie, shooting an abysmal 41.6 percent from 2-point range and just 32.5 percent from deep. His 3.4 turnovers per game as a rookie were tied for the 4th-most in the entire NBA, and every other player in the Top-15 was a recent All-Star. It was an ignominious start.
Things didn't get much better from there. He showed more flashes in his second season, and the turnovers dipped down a small amount, but he remained a player who was wildly inconsistent and couldn't be trusted to play a major role on a good team. The upside was there, but the trust was not.
The question of how Henderson looks in his third season is unanswered, as Henderson is yet to make his debut this season as he recovers from a significant hamstring injury. There remains no clear timeline for his return. The Trail Blazers have built a deep frontcourt but their backcourt remains thin as Damian Lillard and Henderson are out. They could have used Henderson -- and they desperately need to evaluate whether he can be their point guard of the future.
Anthony Black is breaking out in Orlando
As they wait on Henderson, another team is welcoming in a breakout star. The Orlando Magic held the sixth pick in the 2023 NBA Draft and needed a point guard; there were rumors of a desired trade-up to the second or third pick to draft Henderson. Instead, they stayed put, and used the pick on Arkansas guard Anthony Black.
Black didn't join a rebuilding team replete with touches like Henderson did, so his early numbers as he got off to a slow start were much quieter than Scoot's. Playing on a team with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, Black saw a small role and averaged just 4.6 points as a rookie and 9.4 in his second season.
This year, however, the switch was flipped. Black went from role player to breakout star. He is averaging 15.9 points per game, hitting 53.1 percent of his 2-pointers and contributing 4.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.3 steals per game. It's a well-rounded impact for a player who is finding his place alongside the Magic's other stars, and showing himself capable of stepping up into a larger role when his teammates battle injuries.
Where Henderson is an on-again, off-again defender, Black's impact on that end has been felt since he entered the league. At 6'7" he has the size to defend multiple positions, and he fits right into the Magic's mantra of size and length. Now he has added the offensive impact, and his usage rate continues to creep up toward strong second-scorer levels.
What if the Trail Blazers hadn't taken Scoot Henderson?
If the Portland Trail Blazers had Anthony Black right now instead of Henderson, they would have a potential running-mate to Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe. Portland would have a balanced scoring attack and not compromise their defensive identity in any way. The likes of Black, Avdija, Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan is a terrifying young defensive core, with Robert Williams, Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday as complementary veterans.
It's not as if Black has found a low-ceiling, high-floor niche this season. He is legitimately leveling up, and he could continue to do so. Just as the Blazers have found a do-it-all budding star in Deni Avdija, so the Magic might have found the same with Black. And Portland could easily have drafted him instead.
This is less a referendum on the Blazers' draft scouting -- everyone had Henderson ahead of Black -- and more a recognition of the regret they are feeling. Whether it was passing on Amen Thompson or even the perfect guard for them in Anthony Black, they have gotten very little from Scoot Henderson.
With each game that he sits out and his draft peers ball out, that regret only grows.