The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the most injury-riddled teams in the league this season, but that didn't stop them from exceeding expectations with a 42-40 record. Portland officially has its first winning season in five years, in large part thanks to an end-of-season stretch that saw them secure the eighth seed heading into the Play-In Tournament.
The Blazers are trending upwards at the right time as they are finally getting relatively healthy, except for veteran Jerami Grant. Grant is listed as questionable for Portland's play-in matchup against Phoenix. But how much does that potential loss really matter for Portland?
Grant has missed yet another April in Portland, sidelined since March 27 with a calf injury. They've been 5-2 in his absence, suggesting this may be one of those "addition by subtraction" scenarios.
Blazers are better off without Jerami Grant
On the surface, Portland needs Grant's veteran presence and floor-spacing ability. He's had a bounce-back year, averaging 18.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game on 45/39/81 shooting splits. He's one of the best shooters on this roster, which one would think makes him invaluable on a team that finished the season tied for third-worst in three-point efficiency at 34.3%. Additionally, his positional size at 6-foot-7 gives him the length and versatility that bolsters the strength of this Blazers roster.
But the frustrating thing about Grant is that his traits don't make as much of a two-way impact on winning as you'd expect. Offensively, he's incredibly one-dimensional as a score-first player. That's made Portland's offense more stagnant, which is something they've tried to emphasize improving this season. We've seen other players step up in Grant's absence, as they've finally had more opportunities, and overall, Portland's offense has flowed much better.
Defensively, he's not as impactful as you think one with his length and athleticism would be. He's always been an enigma when it comes to rebounding, as he should be averaging much more than 3.5 per game.
The advanced metrics support this surprising lack of impact as Grant is a -0.7 in DPM and -0.5 in ODPM, per Databllr. Those impact metrics estimate how much a player improves a team's expected points allowed or scoring per 100 possessions. Additionally, Portland's net rating with Grant on the court is just a +0.2.
Portland must finally make the move they've resisted
None of this is ideal for a player set to make $34.2 million next season with a $36.4 million player option in 2027-28.
The Blazers are overpaying two veterans in Jrue Holiday and Grant, and this recent stretch has confirmed what many already assumed. Portland should eventually decide which one to move on from, as it would make things much less complicated in terms of retaining its existing core. And between the two, we've seen firsthand which one has been less impactful this season. In fact, you can make a case that the Blazers are better off without Grant, even without accounting for the contract.
With the contract, it's a no-brainer for Portland to explore moving him this summer. Fortunately, Grant's resurgent season could actually give them a viable pathway to doing so, too.
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